Stat of the Day Update, 3rd to 8th March 2014

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day : Update

Stat of the Day Update: 03/03/14 to 08/03/14

Just like the previous week, I was only able to find one winner from my six selections, which leaves me a little short of my target strike rate. Fortunately, the winner was advised at 6/1 and despite a 10% Rule 4 deduction, we were still able to secure a small profit on the week.

None of the four losing bets were totally disgraced and we weren't that far away from a few more winners. Hopefully they'll come this week. Cheltenham is almost upon us, but my usual MO at festival Time is to seek out value elsewhere when some trainers go "under the radar" away from the intense media glare.

Selections & Results: 03/03/14 to 08/03/14

03/03: 3.45 Kempton: Dimitar (adv 9/2 BOG) : 4th at 5/1
04/03: 3.00 Exeter: Flying Award (adv 5.4/1 BOG after R4) : won at 9/2
05/03: 8.30 Kempton: Fleetwoodsands (adv 7/2 BOG) : non-runner
06/03: 6.55 Kempton: Basil Berry (adv 13/2 BOG) : 3rd (u/p) at 10/1
07/03: 5.30 Wolverhampton: Thorpe Bay (adv 4/1 BOG) : 3rd at 11/8
08/03: 4.40 Wolverhampton: Hitchens (adv 5/1 BOG) : 3rd at 7/2

03/03 to 08/03:
1 winning bet from 5
P/L: +1.40pts

1 winner from 6 = 16.66% S.R
P/L: +0.40pts
POI = +6.67%

221 winners from 770 = 28.70% S.R
P/L: +155.03pts
ROI: +20.13%
plus a 12pt profit from 1 forecast => +167.03pts from a 771pt outlay = +21.66% ROI

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.

Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day Update, 3rd to 8th March 2014

  1. jethro

    Hi Chris,
    Thanks for your continued hard work and good results! Seeing as this is a statistically based tipping service, I hope you don’t think I’m cheeky putting a simple stat back your way here.
    I note that the Sunday SOTD selection is no more. Now, I entirely understand that everyone needs a day off each week; however I am very disappointed to see that it is a Sunday that you have chosen; as in recent times, this has been your most successful day of the week!
    Your recent results over the 14 weeks from the 23 Nov 2013 until the 28 Feb 14 have turned up 23 winners. Putting these 23 winning selections into the days of the week reveals the following results:
    • Saturdays 4 winners
    • Sundays 5 winners
    • Mondays 2 winners
    • Tuesdays 2 winners
    • Wednesdays 3 winners
    • Thursdays 3 winners
    • Fridays 4 winners
    The type of racing on a Sunday is therefore producing your best results as of late, obviously suiting your statistically based approach (quite often Irish race meetings too); while your results also reflect the usual poor standard of racing which is on offer on Mondays and Tuesdays. Your strike-rate on a Sunday is 36% (5/14); while your strike-rate on a Monday and a Tuesday is 14% (2/14) respectively.
    So, my cheeky question in order to maintain your strike-rate; is there any chance you could take Mondays or Tuesdays off, instead of Sundays?
    I know that you probably want the downtime to spend with family on a Sunday; however now that we are paying for the SOTD tipping service as part of the Gold Memberhip; from a selfish perspective I would like to get the most out of it. As a thought, could you perhaps look for the Sunday selection at the same time as you do your research for Saturdays? I know that the going will be unpredictable in doing this in advance during the Summer months of flat racing, however during Winter it probably wouldn’t have as much effect? (Perhaps a selection subject to the forecast track conditions on Sundays maybe?)
    I would much appreciate your thoughts as always…
    Best regards

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Jethro,

      It’s certainly food for thought and whilst I haven’t given it my full consideration just yet (but I will!), my initial response is as follows:

      1. Doing two days worth of selections at once wouldn’t actually save me any time. Each selection hasn’t be researched to the same detail and I actually spend over an hour per selection and even longer to find one for Saturdays which tend to be more competitive.

      2. Since SotD became part of the paid package, I have endeavoured to have the selection online before most of you get up for breakfast, so those unable to bet at work can “get on”. This means I’m either doing the selections in the evenings or very early morning (I often post up at 2am!). This would then mean spending well over 2 hrs on a Friday night doing SotD ahead of the busiest day of the racing week.

      3. Matt doesn’t produce the Shortlist on Sundays and I have found it very difficult to find two suitable races beyond SotD for the Daily Double on Sundays too. To take Sunday off lends some form of uniformity to the tipping arm of Geegeez, I suppose.

      However (and there’s always an However! 😀 ) it’s not set in stone about Sundays and it has only been the last two weeks that I’ve taken Sundays off. I’m happy to provide selections for the site whenever requested and it’s something myself and Matt can discuss at a later date (there’s something else happening in the racing world this week!).

      We also don’t want you to feel cheeky about the suggestion. I welcome any constructive input to my work and it’s quite apt that you should back up your request with a set of stats of your own: how can I ignore that?

      Thanks for taking the time to write and I promise we’ll at least discuss your suggestion.


  2. Rambler

    Hi Chris – Good to see your remarks about SotD during Cheltenham week – getting a winning is like finding a needle in a haystack !

    Regards jethro’s suggestion – it has some merit (statistically) however Sunday as a day of rest for both you & Matt provides a conformity that difficult to argue against – we all know where we are i.e. no selections and no worry about missing the next big winner while I’m out on the mower.

    However, Mondays is usually pretty poor racing fair, which is probably reflected in the SotD results that jethro put together.

    You have my backing whatever you decide – SotD, D.D. & Shortlist are all excellent products, long may they continue.


  3. jethro

    Hi Chris,

    Many thanks for your in depth response and consideration. By the way – what else could be happening in the racing world this week? Ha ha…

    Ohhh! Today’s Monday – go Fredo; and here’s hoping the horse can turn my Monday stats above on their head!


    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      No problem, it was certainly an interesting suggestion you made.
      If you’ve the time (I unfortunately haven’t at present), a more accurate breakdown would be the P/L and RO figures rather than a strike rate.

      As things stand, I’m away on holiday in Cuba from 27th March to 11th April inclusive and of the two Sundays I have before I go away, the second is my wedding anniversary, so SotD won’t feature on a Sunday until 13th April at the very earliest anyway.

      DD and The Shortlist will still not feature on Sundays, irrespective of any change of plan for SotD.

  4. jethro

    The P/L and RO figures don’t actually matter to me; as I always make the same profit each time you select a winner; whether it is the first in a run, or the tenth after a run of nine losers. Where I do cash in is when you select a horse that drifts in the betting after placing my bet with a BOG bookmaker. Also the more frequent your winners are the better, at any price in the range you concentrate on. (I.e. No hot favourites).
    That’s why the strike rate is my main concern. I will have more time on my hands from about the 9th April, as I am getting ready to move countries at the end of the month. I will drop you a line through the website email address after settling in and explain my staking plan further.
    All the best for both your Cuban holiday and wedding anniversary…

  5. twood715

    Hi Chris,
    An interesting post by Jethro certainly gives food for thought.
    I have to admit I do miss SotD on Sundays but I do appreciate the early postings which gives me the opportunity to place my bet the evening before or early morning on race day. Previously I wasn’t always able to access SotD during the day which meant that sometimes I missed the winners (losers too).
    As always Chris your posts are interesting, detailed and provide a valuable insight. My inbox is bombarded daily with tips that are supposedly guaranteed certainties however it is Geegeez and SotD that I await and anticipate.

    Keep up the good work!


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