Stat of the Day, 9th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2013

I hold my hands up and say I got it wrong yesterday. I was quite pleased to have got 4/1 BOG about Arabian Beauty, but the race summary says all you need to know after she eventually came home 8th of 10 runners, a good 11 lengths off the pace.

The summary said: "Dwelt raced wide mid-didivision, ridden and no impression over 2f out, eased final furlong opened 5/1 touched 7/1" I've left the Sporting Life's spelling error in there, because I'm churlish like that sometimes! 😀

It's only a 30 mile drive down the A46 for today's race, the...

3.00 Nottingham

A track which has been particularly kind to trainer Marco Botti and his followers over the years. In fact blindly backing all his runners priced at 12/1 or under at this track since 2008 would have given you a healthy profit.

He has, admittedly, only sent 50 runners here in that time, but when nine of them (18%) turn out to be winners that generate 20.26pts profit in the process, that's a lovely 40.5% return on your money. A tenner on each would have grown your £500 total stakes to almost £703, not bad at all off a handful of bets each year.

Marco has sent more runners here in recent years, though, it should be said and his record for the 2011/13 period reads six winners from thirty, a very handy 20% strike rate responsible for 13.73 pts (+45.77% ROI) profits, which automatically sparks my interest whenever I see any of runners declared to run here.

And in true SotD style, Mr Botti has only one entrant here today, the lightly raced Exceed And Excel colt Exceeder who makes his handicap bow today after three promising runner-up finishes and a far from poor 4th place last time out at Sandown. In fact, he came within a whisker of breaking his maiden tag on debut here at Nottingham when beaten very late on some four months ago.

That 4th placed finish at Sandown a month ago was in a race won by Outer Space, who was subsequently the runner-up as 3/1 favourite in the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Ascot last Saturday, so it wasn't a disgrace to beaten by that one and Exceeder had led until deep into the final furlong.

An opening mark of 75 could prove to be quite lenient for this one who cost 100,000 Gns at the Breeze-Up sales and it is expected that the 5f trip in handicap company should do the trick today.

I've no concerns about his being his handicap debut either, as Marco Botti's handicap debutants also show a profit if backing them blindly at 12/1 or under since 2008. In fact, had you backed them all, you'd have landed yourself 13 winners from 62 bets, a strike rate of 21% rewarding you to the tune of 39.7pts profit or £6.40 profit on every £10 staked, if you prefer.

The stats for 2012/13 stand at 7 winners from 34 (20.6% SR) for 23.23pts (+38.3% ROI) profit with a 3/4 for 19.17pts record here at Nottingham.

I've placed my 1pt win bet on Exceeder at 4/1 with Paddy Power, but a few other firms (including Bet365, BetVictor and William Hill) are also at that price too, so why not..

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