Stat of the Day, 9th October 2012

Stat of the Day 09/10

Stat of the Day 09/10

Stat of the Day, 9th October 2012

A terrific performance from Myboyalfie yesterday, I expected him to go well on the soft ground, but not that well! he fairly blasted out of the stalls and led from pillar to post, finally coming home almost 4 lengths in front of the runner-up and he didn't see another horse all the way round. I suggested that he was quite overpriced yesterday at 6/1, yet he hardly budged in the market, constantly hovering around the 11/2 SP that he was sent off at. My only regret about yesterday was the E/W fudging I did, but hindsight is a marvellous thing and I still made 3.75pts on the day. 6pts would have been nice, but one shouldn't grumble!

There's plenty more soft ground around today and as tempted as I was to try and find another mudlark, I'm a firm believer in the old adage: if it ain't broke, then don't fix it. This leads us to the West Midlands for a tea-time spin on the polytrack. The contest is a nine-runner Class 6 Handicap over 8.5 furlongs (and 31 yards, if we're being precise!) aka the...

5.30 Wolverhampton

The first name I always look for at Wolverhampton is Roger Varian. He's had an explosive start to his training career and his best results seem to be here at Wolverhampton. He has had 22 runners at the Dunstall Park track, returning 9 winners (41% Strike rate) and a total of 15 of them have made the frame (68.2%). Backing each of Roger's 22 runners here for £10 level stakes would have already made you a profit of some £235, a very healthy 106.8% profit on your investments.

Last time we chose one of Roger's horses as SotD, Emkanaat was our 20/1 selection which ended up as a 7/1 SP winner, whilst the other Varian runner that day Afraah was also a winner at 7/4.

Eamaadd is Roger's only runner anywhere today. He's a half-brother to three winners out of a half-sister to smart stayer Boreas so should be capable of stepping up on his maiden form now going handicapping and this is a considerable drop in class. His last two runs have both been at Class 4, where he wasn't disgraced by any means.

He is expected to improve for those runs and the drop down in class should give him a little more edge today on handicap debut, but I can't help but feel that Mr Varian has specifically targeted this race today.

Based on his assumed potential and the record of the trainer, we're happy enough to take this as an E/W possibility today. We know he won't have things entirely his own way and he'll have to battle to get home, but this is reflected in his current price of 8/1 BOG with William Hill & Stan James, but you can always...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.30 Wolverhampton.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 9th October 2012

  1. Jim Hdez

    Hi Chris, couldn’t believe Paddy Power opened up EVENS about Dawn Approach for Dewhurst. They are now more realistic 8/11 !!.
    Really should walk it on Saturday. Very early Xmas Present to all those who grabbed the EVENS !!!.

  2. Stu

    Fuming, I placed this at 15/2 EW as advised and the bet settled as a win only. I obviously have no proof otherwise and I urge everybody to always check their bets, particularly Betvictor as I constantly encounter issues with their Android and IPad apps. On a more positive note well done again Chris! Pity I couldn’t join in the fun!

  3. Johnny5

    Unlucky Chris – so tight . Great ew return tho and major punt too .. Well spotted fella

    Gutted I just missed out On the fc with the fav by a head …

    It’s a good part system taking the favourite with the Sotd selection ( if not fav) in a bet365 bog Crfc

    Thxs again

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.