Stat of the Day, 9th October 2012
A terrific performance from Myboyalfie yesterday, I expected him to go well on the soft ground, but not that well! he fairly blasted out of the stalls and led from pillar to post, finally coming home almost 4 lengths in front of the runner-up and he didn't see another horse all the way round. I suggested that he was quite overpriced yesterday at 6/1, yet he hardly budged in the market, constantly hovering around the 11/2 SP that he was sent off at. My only regret about yesterday was the E/W fudging I did, but hindsight is a marvellous thing and I still made 3.75pts on the day. 6pts would have been nice, but one shouldn't grumble!
There's plenty more soft ground around today and as tempted as I was to try and find another mudlark, I'm a firm believer in the old adage: if it ain't broke, then don't fix it. This leads us to the West Midlands for a tea-time spin on the polytrack. The contest is a nine-runner Class 6 Handicap over 8.5 furlongs (and 31 yards, if we're being precise!) aka the...
The first name I always look for at Wolverhampton is Roger Varian. He's had an explosive start to his training career and his best results seem to be here at Wolverhampton. He has had 22 runners at the Dunstall Park track, returning 9 winners (41% Strike rate) and a total of 15 of them have made the frame (68.2%). Backing each of Roger's 22 runners here for £10 level stakes would have already made you a profit of some £235, a very healthy 106.8% profit on your investments.
Last time we chose one of Roger's horses as SotD, Emkanaat was our 20/1 selection which ended up as a 7/1 SP winner, whilst the other Varian runner that day Afraah was also a winner at 7/4.
Eamaadd is Roger's only runner anywhere today. He's a half-brother to three winners out of a half-sister to smart stayer Boreas so should be capable of stepping up on his maiden form now going handicapping and this is a considerable drop in class. His last two runs have both been at Class 4, where he wasn't disgraced by any means.
He is expected to improve for those runs and the drop down in class should give him a little more edge today on handicap debut, but I can't help but feel that Mr Varian has specifically targeted this race today.
Based on his assumed potential and the record of the trainer, we're happy enough to take this as an E/W possibility today. We know he won't have things entirely his own way and he'll have to battle to get home, but this is reflected in his current price of 8/1 BOG with William Hill & Stan James, but you can always...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.30 Wolverhampton.