Stat of the Day, 9th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2012

Again, we walloped the price yesterday, but the race wasn't run to suit Everaard, who would definitely have preferred a more searching gallop. No use to us.

We're headed to the South east this afternoon, and  the…

4.10 Fontwell

Three times during the current run, I've had a choice of two horses to nominate and the other one has won. One of that trio of frustrations was when failing to go with an Oliver Sherwood runner. He will have his moment in the spotlight today though.

Sherwood has an excellent record at Fontwell, especially in bumpers and hurdle races. Whilst I could have nominated Bertie's Desire, who runs in a novice hurdle (1.10), I've decided to go with his National Hunt Flat - or bumper - runner, Beforeall.

In NHF races at Fontwell, Sherwood has run ten horses over the past five years, four of which have won. Perhaps more remarkable is that all four were since this meeting in 2010, a period in which his Fontwell bumper form reads 1241181. And perhaps more remarkable still, is that Sherwood also won this race last year, with a 14/1 shot.

He goes for the hat-trick today, and there's little I can tell you about the horse except that it's an ex-Irish pointer, who won under that code, and is obviously fancied today.

There was some 3/1 earlier, but 11/4 is now the best available, with bet365 guaranteeing that price should he drift.

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.10 Fontwell

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 9th November 2012

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      When luck’s out it’s out. That ride was an absolute shocker. On the lead, conceded three lengths a furlong out, started to ride the horse half a furlong out, beaten a neck. Poor, poor ride.

      1. Ian Hughes

        Couldn’t agree more Matt,absolute disgrace..! Aspell cost me big time this week, got beat in the bumper at Warwick Weds. Done the opposite there got caught napping at the back and flew home beaten a short head. Got caught napping on the lead today..! No wonder Sherwood put Geraghty up at Ascot on Saturday

  1. Rob B

    Mr B, Mr B here again. Rant – I know some people on here think you should be giving us winners on a daily basis and on a personal basis you still won’t explain what “value” is, but I’m at the end of my horse tether.

    I set my alarm at 06:50, SOTD posted at 01:40, how the hell am I supposed to get value (what ever that is?). Sometimes it’s posted at 23:22, how the hell am I ( refer to above) and today, yeah today, I set the alarm for 03:36 to align with baby L’s night bottle and nothing. Nothing. Nothing, until past 11ish, nearly bedtime when your up at 03:36.

    And to make matters worse, you are some sort of Daren Brown and “forced” me to bet on “Bertie’s desire”.

    I used to think I was an adult and could make my own decisions, but I’m starting to agree with all the moaning Minnie’s on here and say IT’S ALL YOUR FAULT.

    I used to have a life Daren, I used to spend my money on what I wanted, I used to not set my alarm to beat the markets, I was my own man.

    You say Chris and you only post your choice for value (whatever that is) and now my life is intwined with the bodily functions of baby L.

    I’m just letting you know what it’s like on the other end of your post Daren.

    I don’t even like horses and more importantly value horses.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Good rant Rob. Value is getting bigger odds than the true probability. Of course, the trick is in understanding how to quantify that. Given that horses win at a rate close to their starting price odds (at the sharp end of the market anyway), if you are getting a bigger price than SP consistently, you are getting value and will win. Itll make more sense after I buy you a beer. Stop betting on horses!

  2. martin

    Absolutely agree with your notion of value Matt. If you think that the probability (likely chance) of a horse winning are better than the odds, that are being offered by the bookmaker, you take the bet. So if you think a horse has a 50% chance of winning and the odds being offered are say 2-1 (so the bookmaker only puts the chances of the horse winning at 33.33) you take this bet. If the horse was at odds of less than evens you wouldn’t take this bet…you’ll lose in the long run.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.