Stat of the Day, 8th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th May 2013

A few jumping errors put paid to Sew On Target's challenge yesterday, as he finished second to a very good effortless performance from Evan Williams' West with the Wind who didn't put a foot wrong. I'm not sure as our selection would have beaten the winner with a better display of jumping, but I think it would have been a close affair.

It's time to get back amongst the winners and I'm hopeful that a trip to the A/W might bring that for us. Today's race is a one mile, class 6 handicap, as nine runners contest the...

2.55 Southwell:

Our selection today, Plus Fours,  is making his debut for Michael Appleby's yard today, after a fairly modest nine-race career so far. In fact, a second place in a Wolverhampton maiden last August was as good as it got.

That poor form doesn't deter me tough, as Mr Appleby has an excellent record of bringing horses to the yard and getting them to run well on their first outing for him. In the last years, his record with such horses (ie those who have run elsewhere before and are making their first start for the new yard) is an excellent 9 wins from 62 attempts. This 14.52% strike rate has generated 183.5pts profit to date, a return on stakes of almost 296%.

Plus Fours is a grey 4 yr old of American origin and the younger (aged 2 to 4) USA-bred horses tend to fare very well in handicap races here at Southwell. Since 2009, such horses priced at 5/2 or over (the lowest I'd really want to go for SotD) in medium-sized fields (ie 7 to 13 runners) such as today, have won 55 from 309 races (17.8%) for profits of 250pts (80.9% ROI)

Our selection runs off a very lowly mark of 45 today, having secured his sole place to date off a mark of 62, so he technically has the weights on his side, should the new yard be able to work their magic. Today also represents the horse's first ever race at Southwell and of those USA-bred horses above, 24 out of 108 of them won on their Southwell debut: a strike rate of 22.22% for profits of 189pts = 175% ROI.

The numbers seem to back up the selection and if the market follows suit, then this could be a very interesting contest. At the time of posting (10.00am), the best price was 7/2 with a number firms. I've placed a 1pt win bet on Plus Fours at 7/2 BOG with William Hill today, but please do...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.55 Southwell.

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