Stat of the Day, 8th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2014

Advised at 4/1 and backed in to 5/2 favouritism, Renard Dirlande looked a good bet in the early stages of yesterday's encounter, but a mistake at the 6th fence caused him to unseat Aidan Coleman, denying us of the opportunity to continue our recent fine run.

Today, however, is a whole new day and I'm taking a crack at the...

12.10 Doncaster:

John Ferguson has had a pretty successful start to life as a trainer, with a near 23% strike rate already amassed from his 363 runners. Backing them blindly at SP results in a small loss, but this generally means that BOG backers would have made a modest profit throughout.

Of his 363 runners to date, just 17 have run here at Town Moor, but a return of 6 winners and 5 placers makes good reading. The 35.3% strike rate (64.7% placed) can be further improved by ignoring the runners we tend not to go for here at SotD.

To which end, his stats are five winners (35.7% SR) and 4 placers (64.3% placed) from 14 runners, when we discard the odds on / double-digit odds runners. And whilst the returned profits of 3.15pts (+22.50% ROI) aren't spectacular, they're a starting point that would no doubt be bettered by using the BOG bookmakers.

John has just the one runner today in the shape of Namibian, who was a decent runner on the Flat in 2011 for Mark Johnston, being placed in a couple of listed events, before tasting success in consecutive outings at Group 3 level over 2 miles (Good to Soft) and 1m4f, meaning that he should have enough stamina coupled with speed between the hurdles providing he gets round today.

He suffered from colic and was absent from the track for 16 months (he was also gelded during his layoff), before taking to hurdling on his return at Huntingdon four weeks ago. He clearly needed the run that day, but his jumping held up well for a hurdling debut. He tailed off fairly quickly late on and his jockey (Denis O'Regan who rides again today) eased him down once the race had gone.

He'll improve for having had a pipe-opener and the declared good to soft ground should suit him here today. It's actually soft in places and more rain likely, it could get boggier, which could help us with a horse who is 1/1 on soft ground and has a won and a place to his name from four races on Good to Soft.

Had this been a flat race, he'd have been pretty short and I was hoping/expecting we'd get around 5/1 today. I was therefore, pleasantly surprised to see Coral offering 8/1 BOG. That means it's now a safety-first approach for me with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Namibian at 8/1 BOG with Coral. To see what prices are available elsewhere...

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