Stat of the Day, 8th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 8/1/13

Stat of the Day: 8/1/13

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2013

Today sees me make a calculated gamble that if it comes off ,as I expect it to, will look like a good call. However, if it doesn't go my way, it might make me look a little lazy at best. But we often repeat stats on SotD, especially if they're good ones.

What is unusual to have the same conditions available twice in the space of three days, as is the case today as we return to Monmouthshire for a Class 4 handicap hurdle over a three-mile trip, as 13 runners are set to do battle in the...

1.55 Chepstow

As we pointed out on Saturday, David Pipe's hurdlers really are the business here at Chepstow with a 5yr record of 16 winners from 58 ( 27.6%) producing some 42pts profit at SP. And quite remarkably, his record in the last two years is even better, as he has saddled up an impressive 11 winners from his last 28 hurdlers here in that two-year window. This more recent 39.3% strike rate has been responsible for a level stakes profit of 38pts, which is a profit on stakes of over 135%.

Last Saturday, David's sole Chepstow hurdler Amigo was a winner at 11/2 for SotD and we're hoping that his only runner here today, Laflammedeglorie, will follow-up that success.

Laflammedeglorie has been very lightly raced, but has one victory and one runner-up position already under his belt and today is just his fourth start. He broke his maiden tag here at Chepstow in a novice hurdle last february on soft ground and has had two other runs on heavy ground, so the testing conditions shouldn't be an issue today. He has been off the track since then, but fitness never seems to be a problem with horses in the Pipe yard and this does mean he's certainly far less exposed than some of his rivals today.

Whilst his opening handicap mark of 112 could have been more lenient, there does seem to be plenty of scope for improvement from this one and the early indications are that he will have more to give now tackling handicaps.

David Pipe likes to pick and choose his entrants here at Chepstow and he seems to think that the course, the trip and the ground will suit Laflammedeglorie today, so who am I to argue?

Today's play is a 1pt win bet on Laflammedeglorie at 100/30 BOG with Paddy Power, but please take the opportunity to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.55 Chepstow

 

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 8th January 2013

  1. Johnny5

    Good luck Chris in going for the SotD Hattrick !!

    Seems market agrees as us 3/1 best bog bet365 and as low as 5/2 – which is some price for a horse that’s been off the track nearly a year …but as you say the Pipe yard have been there before and there’s no better yard for a SotD Hattrick chaser

    Good luck Chris !

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers, Johnny. In my defence, I picked it out at tea-time last night and it was only then that I remembered we’d gone with the Pipe yard on Saturday. But the stats are actually better now , if anything, courtesy of Saturday’s win. On reflection, it’s no different than keeping looking at Roger Varian at Wolverhampton etc, its just unusual to have the same Nh course reappear so quickly, I didn’t want people to think I’d taken the easy option.

      That aside, there wasnt much else on offer today that took my fancy.

      The horse was actually 7/2 when I started typing the piece and shortened to 10/3 by the time I’d finished. I think 5/2 or shorter will be the order of the day.

      All the best, everyone,
      Chris

  2. Johnny5

    Not laziness – astute insight Chris to have spotted it …

    Indeed odd to have chepstow NH racing on non consecutive days in three days

    If its already 7/2 Into 3/1 or 5/2 then for sure the Pipe money that is on doesn’t often get left behind

    Unfort a 11/2 NR now forced price into 2/1 or so

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks for the kind words, Johnny.
      Yes, the N/R has meant a 10% reduction on prices taken before 0900 so my 7/2 at bet365 is now approx 22/7 and the officially advised 10/3 is now a 3/1 shot. Paddy Power are currently still the best on display at 9/4, which is as high as I’d expect anyone to get from here on in. I do think this one will shorten further as the day progresses.

      Chris

  3. paul petit

    If I were to play it, I would prefer to lay the horse, because of the low odds and the fact that Tom Scudamore is riding it.He rode Laflamme before and was not impressive even though they were just coasting with it. Scudamore seems to ride poorly for Pipe entries that are under a 130 rpr.

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