Stat of the Day, 8th August 2013
Our poor start to the week continued as Key Gold seemed to not get the full 1m 6f yesterday. He weakened considerably in the final couple of furlongs to finish back in sixth of the ten runners, a good 8 lengths or so behind the winner. The only bright spot was getting the early 4/1 odds, as he was sent off at 3's.
We're off to the seaside today for 7 furlong, Class 5, Apprentice Handicap on good to firm ground where just six runners are expected to line up for the...
Where I've backed Duke of Destiny at 2/1 BOG with BetVictor and the main reason behind the selection is that this is trainer Ed Walker's first runner of the year at the Norfolk track, a course where he has achieved his best results to date in his fairly short training career.
Since Riggins won on 27th November 2010 in Ed's first ever race as a trainer, it has just about been profitable to back all his horses blindly at betfair SP. To date, he has saddled up 41 winners from 267 attempts (15.36%) for 11.51pts profit, a modest return of 4.31%, but a blind profit nontheless and a good starting point for any microsystem.
In handicap races alone, the strike rate improves to 16.77% (26 winners from 155) with a marked rise in the profits too: 31.79pts is equivalent to 20.5% of stakes and in handicap races with horses priced below 4/1 (as today's is) the numbers are even more impressive with 15 winners from 36 (41.67%) for profits of 15.72pts (+43.67% ROI). As well as finding 15 winners from the 36 runners at 4/1 or under, a further 12 have made the frame for a place strike rate of 75%, with just five of them not making the first three home.
Whilst a career strike rate of over 15% is very good, we should now look at Ed Walker's record here at Yarmouth, where he has had seven winners from his thirteen entries. I appreciate that it's a small sample size at the moment, but a 53.85% strike rate is difficult to ignore with profits of 58.31pts (+448.5% ROI) impossible to ignore. Admittedly there are a couple of bigger priced winner skewing the P/L figures, but even at odds of 4/1 or under, the results are impressive with five winners from seven producing 10.06pts profit, a return of 143.7%. In handicaps, that record is 4/6 for 8.12pts.
This is an apprentice handicap today and is only the 14th time Ed has used a 7lb claimer to ride one of his horses, but he has already had three winners from the previous thirteen attempts. Yet again it's a small sample size, but all the small pieces of data do add up.
As for the horse itself, Duke of Destiny has been running pretty consistently without quite getting home and has attracted plenty of market support in the past. He has won once and been placed four times from seven races in the last year with a win and two runner-up finishes from four attempts at today's 7f trip. The win was off a mark of 58 and the two seconds came off 65. He has been eased to 64 today and Bradley Bosley is able to take another 7lbs off him, making him quite well weighted for what looks a very poor race to end the meeting.
Trainer Ed Walker won this race last year and will be looking for Duke of Destiny to follow up for him today. I've taken 2/1 BOG with BetVictor, but some of the other firms are currently matching this, so the best advice is to...