Stat of the Day, 7th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2013

Life And Times put in a decent display on his return to flat racing after over three years and despite looking well beaten on the turn for home, was finishing like a train at the end of the race.

Whether or not he'd have caught the 4/7 favourite is open to debate, but I think he could very well have taken this one, had he not been so far off the pace earlier in the contest.

Now whether something was amiss or it was a case of tactics going wrong, we'll have to wait and see, but a one-length defeat at 5/1 was no disgrace and he could be one to keep an eye out for in the future, should they get him back on the track before 2016!

We've not taken SotD hurdling for a while, so let's set that straight with a runner in the...

3.55 Stratford

Trainer Nicky Henderson doesn't use 5lb claiming jockeys very often, but when he does the results are generally very good. And as you'd expect with any Henderson selection away from the "big" meetings, the odds aren't going to be massive, so we're firstly going to look at his runners priced at 8/1 or under.

In the last three years, Mr Henderson has employed the services of a jockey with a 5lb claim in just 38 handicap contests, securing 10 (26.3%) winners and 25.8pts profit (+67.95% ROI) in the process.

From those above 38 races, we can see that jockey Nico de Boinville has a four from eight record for 19pts profit, including a win at 11/8 last time out over today's course and distance on board today's selection Laudatory.

Laudatory is also of interest to me, as he reappears quite quickly (just 24 days) after that last victory in a race that was his first win for a year. In fact, he hadn't won since winning the very same race in 2012!

I was looking at horses that were unplaced in three consecutive runs before coming back to form for one reason or another and then being quickly turned out again to try to take advantage of that last win.

What I found was that National Hunt horses who had suddenly won after three unplaced efforts and were then turned out within 30 days of that win then went on to win 29.4% of the time in their next race. That figure is based on 72 winners from 245 runners this year, showing reasonable profits of 49.7pts, or 20.3% of stakes.

Laudatory is raised 6lbs for that recent win, but in truth he won very easily last time out that 6lbs shouldn't stop him here and this is a course he knows well. For a horse that has won 4 NH contests from 20, a course and distance record of three wins and a place from eight outings is excellent and suggests he saves his best for here.

As I said earlier, Nico de Boinville takes the ride again, having steered him home last time out on his first ride on this horse and I fancy the pair to repeat the feat today.

Laudatory's course and distance form won't go unnoticed and Nicky Henderson's horses are often overbet and I'll expect money to come for this one in the hours preceding the race, so I suggest you place a 1pt win bet at 3/1 BOG with Paddy Power. Should you wish to shop around, the best thing to do is...

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.55 Stratford

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4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th September 2013

  1. martin

    Just watch a re run of the race on the Sportinglife site…and your selection won with quite a bit to spare I thought. Great pick Chris….brings your current SR to 50%….pretty pretty good for a free service!

    Martin

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers, Martin.
      That’s 4 from 7 for the month so far, but we’re not getting carried away here. We’re very aware of the cyclical nature of daily tipping, yet we still continue to stick our neck out!

      All the best,
      Chris

  2. Stuart

    What happened to the guy who just a few weeks ago suggested stopping this service?

    I know it’s mean to point and laugh (and that Matt will slap my wrist if I do), so I’ll just refer to the cliché about the one who laughs last….

    :o)

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