Stat of the Day, 7th October 2013
Hail Tiberius ran a patient race yesterday and only took the lead at the last, before going to win reasonably comfortably in the end. That was both his and our second win inside 5 days and the slight drift from out 5/2 early BOG price to his 11/4 SP meant an extra 0.25pts in our kitty and as Tesco would have us believe...every little helps! 😀
An interesting Class 4 one-mile handicap awaits today in the...
In last Thursday's piece, I selected Ballinderry Boy (who won for us at 4/1) partly because Andrew Balding has an excellent record when using 5lb claiming jockeys and even more so when talented youngster Oisin Murphy was in the saddle.
Andrew Balding has used a 5lb claimer in 37 handicap races in the last 12 months with 12 winners (32.43% SR) and 53.63pts profit (+144.95%) at level stakes. Oisin Murphy's record from these 37 runners is an excellent 4 winners from 9 (44.44%) for 31.24pts profit, an ROI of over 347%.
With a 6/1 odds cap applied to the original 37 runners, the record is 9/23 (39.13%) for profits of 21.37pts (+92.91%) and the jockey/trainer record with the 6/1 odds cap in place is 3/4 for 11.30pts (+282.5%) profit.
Oisin Murphy rides the consistent Melvin The Grate for Andrew Balding here today, a horse that has already two wins and three places to his name from just seven outings and will most likely go off as favourite here today.
I don't particularly like backing favourites per se (as long as they win, it's fine, though! :D) However, it should be noted that favourites have won 32 out of 80 handicap contests here at Windsor in 2013. That 40% strike rate is far higher than you'd expect and if you'd backed all of them to a £10 level stake, you'd be sitting on a nice profit of £316.90 as we speak, an ROI of almost 40%, just from backing the fav!
I think Oisin Murphy is destined for big things and he continues to churn out a decent proportion of winners at good prices and he could just be the important factor in getting horse over the line who was second last time out in a higher grade than this.
This is a competitive affair and although Melvin The Grate is currently favourite, we can still get 9/2 BOG about him. I've gone with BetVictor, although Stan James are matching the price, so to take your pick...
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Here is today's racecard!