Stat of the Day, 7th October 2012
SotD got back onto the scoreboard yesterday as Always Bold ran out a fairly comfortable winner in the end. Lugging more weight than normal on soft ground for almost three and a half miles didn't seem to faze a horse that has an excellent at course & distance. We had advised a 7/2 bet: this was reduced to 3.325/1 due to non-runners, but we comfortably beat the market as our horse was sent off as 5/2 favourite. We expected him to be the favourite and he justified the tag, winning by 5 lengths in the end, still full of running and going away!
We're heading back North today to the Scottish Borders for some more soft ground action. This time it's a Class 5 Handicap Chase over 2 miles 7 furlongs and we're expecting 10 runners to go to post, offering us the possibility of an E/W bet, even if a couple pull out of the...
Handicap Chases at Kelso can be tricky affairs, but Dianne Sayers' chasers seem to go quite well here without breaking any records. She has admittedly only had one chase victory here from nine attempts in the last couple of years, but that was a 10/1 winner, ensuring she has a 2pts level stakes profit. More interestingly and relevant to today is the fact the four of the nine have made the frame and have generated profit of 6.5 pts when backing E/W: a return of over 72% on stakes. This fits in with my search for an E/W bet.
In the last two years the most successful jockey in Kelso Handicap Chases has been James Reveley with 4 winners from 9 rides and some decent prices have helped him to a level stakes profit of 21pts from those 9 races.
There are two chases on the Kelso card today: one at 4.05 and our race at 5.10. Dianne Sayers runs More Equity in the 4.05 race, and this 10 yr old lady looks set to struggle despite having previously run at the course, whilst James Reveley has no scheduled ride.
However, both trainer and jockey team up in the 5.10 for our SotD selection: Worth A Kings, our tentative E/W selection for today.
Worth A Kings tried his hand over fences last summer, but it didn't really work out for him, if truth be told. He went back to hurdling and rediscovered some form and a bot of confidence via a couple of hurdle victories in May and is expected to make a better fist of it second time around. He'll have no issues with the cut in the ground, he has a win and some place form on soft ground to his name already and if his jumping has improved any, I expect him to be there or thereabouts.
Despite a return to form over the smaller obstacles, Worth A Kings is actually rated higher over fences than hurdles and the yard do seem to think that this is the way forward for him now. Class 5 is probably right for where he's at and with a record of 14211 at this level, he has to be a contender for at least another place. Further smaller things of note are that he tends to go best in fields of 8-11 runners (4 of his 7 career wins) and he is 2 wins and 2 places from 6 in the month of October, so he tends to be readied for this time of year. He last ran 14 days ago and often goes well when reappearing soon after his last run. He has won 5 of the 10 races he has contested between a week and a fortnight from his last outing.
Worth A Kings is worth a look in my opinion and at 14/1 BOG on offer from Bet365, it's a 0.5pt E/W bet today for me and SotD , but you can choose to wait until later and then please do return to...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.10 Kelso.