Stat of the Day, 7th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2012

A one-paced third for Place That Face yesterday, and I'm afraid she does look woefully single speed.

It's a day for the randomizer button today, and I'll press it in the…

12.50 Warwick

At first glance, this looks a very trappy heat... and it may pan out to be just that. But there is one horse in here for whom conditions will suit very well.

Aegean Destiny wouldn't immediately catch the eye of a casual punter scanning the race card, but then nor would many a Stat of the Day pick. She has an unfashionable trainer (John Mackie), unflashy colours (black and red), and uninspiring form figures (3F0). So why nominate her?

Because she loves this sort of muddy ground. Indeed, she's won two and made the frame in eight of her twelve starts on soft or good to soft turf; she's just one win and five places from 26 starts on other going conditions. On the forecast soft turf, she's placed in all but one of her six races.

And two miles suits her just dandy too, with one of her three runs at the trip culminating in victory. This would also be her class, with a win and a place from just four hurdle starts in Class 4 so far, giving her a 25% win and 50% place strike rate (albeit from a very small sample).

Aegean Destiny goes best in reasonable sized fields when there's a good pace, and those are precisely the components of today's race from a pace/field perspective. She comes here off a nice third place on the flat last month, so fitness should be fine, and everything looks set for a good run.

She's an each way price, at 14/1 BOG, and I'm recommending you back her each way. With 'just' fifteen runners, we'll only get three places, but with a consolation that the place will pay a quarter the odds.

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.50 Warwick

14 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th November 2012

  1. ONEMAN

    ouch! just seen the weight, but that is my concern. Thanks very much for the detailed option once more and like you pointed out there is not much else to go at, Lindsay’s Dream perhaps?Best of luck to you all.

  2. thomas

    i’ve got a feeling that a lot of the horses put up on here just lately have not been running to their true potential due to connections not getting on at the right price.my reasoning behind this is that if they are put up overnight then the b/f price is lowered resulting in a false price with the bookies.this is in no way a criticism just an observation. i’ve been involved with a few successful services where this has happened.

  3. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Just sitting here on the desktop and wondered how Chris is ? – no SotD postings for a week or so. Money back + yesterday with Place that Face – t/you.

    Cheers to all.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Horses which are nominated at 14/1 and are sent off at 8/1 are not poor, Jim. Surely (SURELY!!!!) you understand this.

      If, despite all of mine and other people’s explanations of the concept of value, you still don’t get this, then there’s no hope.

      Basically an 8/1 shot will still get beaten 87.5% of the time.

      With respect (which is diminishing fast, I readily concede), what kind of a fool bitches about a 5/2 shot being nominated one day, and then bitches again about a horse which beats the market by fully 43%?!

      This is not alchemy, it is horse racing. If you think I’m no good at picking horses, then that’s fine. But you really need to deal with your recency bias, and take some time (I appreciate that requires you to make some effort) to look through past results.

      I’m not enjoying the current run, but people who simply do not understand – and refuse to try to understand – the notion of value are really starting to get on my tits.

      This is the last time I’ll be writing a comment like this. Just needed to get it off my chest. 🙂

      Matt

  4. Chris A

    Well said Matt, I find it unbelievable that people seem fit to snipe, nobody is forced to follow your excellent site and because of your advice, I have had some of my more memorable punting exploits in the last 12 months and that covers a very chequered 25 years plus.

    I have learnt from my own experience that runs – good and bad – can be cyclical and it is the long term position that is important.

    Keep up the good work, the results will come good again soon.

    Cheers, Chris

  5. Jim

    Not trying to get on your tits Matt (especially when my wife’s are ample enough)!!.
    Ofcourse I understand Value, but are you telling me that if you give a further 30 horses out over the next month, and they all lose. Atleast most of them were backed into a shorter price !!!.
    Yes, alot of your selections are well backed and most definately you are knowledgable about the subject matter. As I’ve posted on here before, this service is the best I’ve seen in a long time. I really hope a winner is just around the corner, I can tell you, Chris and all the contributors on Stats are all top guys.
    I am too most of the time…….but sometimes I get on people’s tits !! lol

  6. Atholl Blair

    Jim, why not just trade them? If you could get on that one at 14/1 (I couldn’t because when I checked this morning it was best price 9/1, but that was later on) just trade them.

    Matt’s got a good following with this kind of stuff. If you’re following all the time, then suck up the best price, wait until the price shortens and then lay it off. That’s simple. Instant profit too. Even if makes you a fiver a day, that’s still £1600 a year….. which is enough for a decent holiday for you and your wife every year.

    No risk involved either. You should look at the bigger picture.

  7. Dunc

    I have been lucky enough to have been following SOTD for quite a while now and can say that I am well in profit thanks to Matt and co. Now if someone started following during a great spell of winners then they would have rightly thought that this is a great tipping site. Now take somone who has started following in the last few weeks and they would have every right to think its a poor tipping site. But the key to all this is if you understand racing and that loosing streaks do happen, you need to able to accept this and by Matt sticking to what he does best, things will start to turn the corner and profits will be made.
    Matt and the team are to my eyes basing selections on sound historical data and provides us all with extra information that we may otherwise not have know. If you decide not to follow the selections then fine but don’t come on here just to have a gloat at someone who is providing a great and free service just because its an easy thing to.
    Lets stop all the silly and derogratory comments and get back to supporting this great site. If STOD is not you’re thing, take a look at all the other goodies on the site and use this to give yourself an extra edge in our fight against the bookies.
    Chin up Matt and thanks for all your efforts.
    Regards
    Dunc

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