Stat of the Day, 7th June 2013
It was one of those "close, but no cigar" days yesterday as we identified two strong prospects in Bartack and Spieta. Whilst Bartack was a little too short-priced for SotD purposes, I still backed him as he won very comfortably at 6/4 and I know a few of you did too. That meant that many of us at least had a free bet on Spieta, the actual daily pick and despite her going down by the best part of two lengths, she wasn't disgraced and gave a good account of herself.
I think she'll be back in the winner's enclosure pretty soon, one to keep an eye out for. We're off to HQ today and the July course (yes, I know it's June!) for a ten furlong, Class 5 Handicap on Good to Firm ground, but they are watering it. We're expecting eight runners to line up later for the...
I make no apologies about sticking with Luca Cumani today, as yesterday showed that he's got his horses in good nick at present and running well. He's also one of the more successful trainers over this course with 20% strike rate in handicaps here over the last three seasons: six winners from thirty for 7.64pts at betfair SP (+25.5% ROI). His record in handicap here in the SotD price range ie 7/1 or under is even more impressive as all six wins have been priced that way. That record is 6/16 (37.5%) for 21.64pts (+135.3%).
Luca has just the one handicap entry here at Newmarket today and that's the lightly raced (just three previous outings) 4 yr old Mankini.
As with Spieta yesterday, Mankini makes his handicap debut today and since the turn of 2010, the Cumani yard has had 52 handicap debutants sent off at prices of under 8/1, returning some sixteen (30.8%) winners for profits of 23.6pts.
It's actually just 16 days shy of a year since Mankini last ran a race of any kind, but as I mentioned yesterday, the yard is very good at getting horses to perform after a lengthy break: 20 wins from 79 (25.3%) for 22.03pts (+27.9% ROI) with horses returning from a break of 6 months to a year and when fancied in the market (ie 4/1 or under) that record is improved further to an astonishing 17/26 (65.4%) for 43.2pts (+166.2%) profit.
One final stat I'd like to throw into the mix is that the horse's three previous outings were over a mile and today he steps up a further two furlongs. That might be seen as a negative to some people, but Luca Cumani adopts this tactic quite often to good effect. Handicap debutants with just three runs under their belts have 6 races for Mr Cumani from just 28 attempts when running over a trip two furlongs longer than their last effort.
All of these point to Mankini having a decent chance today. And it's the stats that we're relying on in the main, as there's little in the way of substantive form to go off, but the four horses that beat him last time out have gone on to run some seventeen times between them since that race. All four have won at least once and their combined record from the seventeen outings is six wins and seven places with just four unplaced efforts, mainly in much better races than today. None of the four failed to make the frame on their very first run after last June's contest with the 3rd and 4th placed horses winning.
The play, therefore, is a 1pt win bet on Mankini at 7/2 BOG. This price is widely available this morning and I've chosen to use BetVictor today, but for your preferred bookie, please...
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