Stat of the Day, 7th December 2012
Another disappointing performance for us yesterday, as Havin A Good Time clearly wasn't doing just that. He was held up for a late run, as many of Roger Varian's horses are at Lingfield, but when asked to quicken, there was nothing there and he continued pretty much one-paced to an 8th place finish at 6/1, just half a point shorter than we'd advised.
We're heading to the South West today for true test of jumping and stamina as we tackle a monster in the shape of the Class 3 Devon Marathon Handicap Chase. The going is set to be heavy (soft in places) for the ten runners slogging it out over 4 miles for the...
It would have been easy to put Fingal Bay (1.00 race) up as our SotD today to break our mini-drought, but we're not generally in the business of advising runners at 1/10! 😀
So we're looking at the following race, an energy sapping 4 mile chase on heavy ground: not one for the faint hearted. As these types of contests are often difficult to call, I've looked for a piece of E/W value and this has led me towards the yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies. NTD hasn't actually had that many winners at Exeter in recent times, if the truth be told, but a 50% placed strike rate from 14 chases at Exeter puts us on the path for an E/W bet. Those seven places from 14 races would have given E/W backers a profit of 12.2pts.
(He did however train the winner of this very race two years ago)
Nigel has just one runner today: the veteran (12 yr old) Ammunition, our pick for today.
Ammunition has won four chase events at a variety of distances from 2m3f to 3m 6f, so jumping shouldn't be an issue today. He stays well and likes running at Exeter, with two course victories to his name. He was a respectable second on his seasonal reappearance here back in October, when finishing 9 lengths behind Chasers Chance in a 3m contest on heavy ground, yet he was still staying on at the end and that race seemed little more than a pipe opener for him.
I doubt stamina will be any problem today, he was 3rd here over 3m 6.5f back in March for the Devon National, beaten by just over 6 lengths, but appearing to still have plenty in the tank.
Ammunition's overall record at Exeter reads 22344112342, 2 wins from 11 (18.2%) have made 11pts profit and 10 E/W bets have yielded a 70% success rate and 24.4pts profit. This record when filtered down to chase events reads 44112342, 2 wins from 8 for 14pts and 4 successful E/W bets from 7 for 22.5pts. So he has been very profitable to follow at this track. Incidentally, he is 24242 on ground described as soft or heavy here.
I think he'll get the trip and I don't think he'll have any problems with the fences. My only concern is that he finds one or two younger horses slightly too good for him (possibly Lord Tomnoddy and/or Desperate Dex), but there's enough room in the market to take a 0.5pt E/W bet on Ammunition at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor. Boylesports, Coral and Stan James are currently offering 6/1 and you may get higher later on the exchanges (Betfair were only 7.4 at 10.15am), so feel free to...