Stat of the Day, 7th December 2012

Stat of the Day 7/12/12

Stat of the Day 7/12/12

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2012

Another disappointing performance for us yesterday, as Havin A Good Time clearly wasn't doing just that. He was held up for a late run, as many of Roger Varian's horses are at Lingfield, but when asked to quicken, there was nothing there and he continued pretty much one-paced to an 8th place finish at 6/1, just half a point shorter than we'd advised.

We're heading to the South West today for true test of jumping and stamina as we tackle a monster in the shape of the Class 3 Devon Marathon Handicap Chase. The going is set to be heavy (soft in places) for the ten runners slogging it out over 4 miles for the...

1.30 Exeter

It would have been easy to put Fingal Bay (1.00 race) up as our SotD today to break our mini-drought, but we're not generally in the business of advising runners at 1/10! πŸ˜€

So we're looking at the following race, an energy sapping 4 mile chase on heavy ground: not one for the faint hearted. As these types of contests are often difficult to call, I've looked for a piece of E/W value and this has led me towards the yard of Nigel Twiston-Davies. NTD hasn't actually had that many winners at Exeter in recent times, if the truth be told, but a 50% placed strike rate from 14 chases at Exeter puts us on the path for an E/W bet. Those seven places from 14 races would have given E/W backers a profit of 12.2pts.

(He did however train the winner of this very race two years ago)

Nigel has just one runner today: the veteran (12 yr old) Ammunition, our pick for today.

Ammunition has won four chase events at a variety of distances from 2m3f to 3m 6f, so jumping shouldn't be an issue today. He stays well and likes running at Exeter, with two course victories to his name. He was a respectable second on his seasonal reappearance here back in October, when finishing 9 lengths behind Chasers Chance in a 3m contest on heavy ground, yet he was still staying on at the end and that race seemed little more than a pipe opener for him.

I doubt stamina will be any problem today, he was 3rd here over 3m 6.5f back in March for the Devon National, beaten by just over 6 lengths, but appearing to still have plenty in the tank.

Ammunition's overall record at Exeter reads 22344112342, 2 wins from 11 (18.2%) have made 11pts profit and 10 E/W bets have yielded a 70% success rate and 24.4pts profit. This record when filtered down to chase events reads 44112342, 2 wins from 8 for 14pts and 4 successful E/W bets from 7 for 22.5pts. So he has been very profitable to follow at this track. Incidentally, he is 24242 on ground described as soft or heavy here.

I think he'll get the trip and I don't think he'll have any problems with the fences. My only concern is that he finds one or two younger horses slightly too good for him (possibly Lord Tomnoddy and/or Desperate Dex), but there's enough room in the market to take a 0.5pt E/W bet onΒ Ammunition at 13/2 BOG with BetVictor. Boylesports, Coral and Stan James are currently offering 6/1 and you may get higher later on the exchanges (Betfair were only 7.4 at 10.15am), so feel free to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 1.30 Exeter

17 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th December 2012

  1. Chris Worrall Post author

    Seriously?
    Who’s voting on these posts and rating them at just 1/10?
    Whether you agree/disagree with our reasoning/logic behind the picks, the posts are better than that.

    1. Mike

      Take it as a compliment, Chris, it’s a cowardly way of having a pop without the reasoning to back it up. I’m already on Ammunition and Chesapeake in this race, but as usual will double up for SOTD. Good luck today.

        1. Chris

          Perhaps a way of leaving your name and a reason for your vote is the way forward, tricky to apply I suspect though. One of the best, honest, bullshit free sites around.

          1. Matt Bisogno Post author

            It’s nothing to worry about, Chris (et al).

            It is simply one of those things. Some people are dickheads, and they like to leave their anonymous dickhead mark. Can’t be helped, and certainly not worth fretting on.

            We’ll keep on keeping on, trying to offer the best service we can. And some people still won’t like it (or will at least enjoy their own pettiness in scoring 1’s).

            Thanks for your support! πŸ˜€

            Matt

  2. Mike

    I like the SOTD analysis. At least there is good reasoning behind every one, even if they dont always bring home the bacon. I agree with your comments Chris. To read the above and then go to rate the analysis at 1/10 makes you wonder why they waste their time in the first place. Keep up the good work.

  3. Chris

    ‘Incidentally, he is 24242 on ground described as soft or heavy here.’
    Just follow the pattern Chris and the result was always going to be 4th!

    Seriously though, didn’t see the race but it looked fairly close and you had a run for your money. All things considered, a good pick.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      A good point, Chris. 4th was always going to be the case, especially after i had a bit of a moan this morning! πŸ˜€
      Of the race itself, the way I saw it was that he travelled really well for the majority of the race, but perhaps lost concentration or something. He seemed to idle for a spell and let the front three get away, before picking himself back up again. He looked like he was gaining on the third place horse with every stride on the run in, but left it just a tad too late to grab a place for us E/W backers.

      As for Fingal Bay, oh dear! He jumped horribly all the way round though.

      1. ONEMAN

        Hi Chris and matt and all the others.

        Not sure why you are worried about a star rating???? do you need to be beefed up that much? is your ego that small??? or does this star rating affect something else? Just like vote rating on ebay? You do not need it. Turn it off.
        The best thing is your info is logical and well thought out and i know you spend a lot of time on it!!! forget the the star rating, in fact turn it off now!!!. The people you want are here and we make the comments on here with full names! and reply option. forget the rest and please do not let it get you down.

        Kind regards and good luck.

        Chris.

        P.S. Are the star results important to this site??? is it needed? I have never used it, but your are a top rate star to me and many others, and you do not need rating for that. just watch and see.

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          Chris,

          We don’t need it, but it comes with the site software!
          I’m not worried about the ratings, I just wondered why people often vote so low.
          A low rating won’t change my methodology at all.

          Chris

  4. Stuart

    Matt hit the nail on the head – the world’s full of dickheads. Alas, they’ve multiplied exponentially since the arrival of the (anonymous) Internet.

    You shouldn’t let them get to you, Chris, of course, but I’m guessing that’s easier said than done. If I’d spent hours doing some work that was truly my best effort, I’d be mightily annoyed if someone just said it was crap. I can take constructive criticism, indeed I welcome it, but to say my work is crap and vanish pisses me off enormously. A person might not agree with your reasoning, that’s their right of course, but it’s a real wimp’s option to just give it 1/10 and disappear without any reasoning. The word “pathetic” is too weak to describe such action.

    Keep up the good work, Chris (and Matt). My gambling has improved enormously since I first encountered this site and I for one am extremely grateful.

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