Stat of the Day, 7th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2013

I said yesterday that despite Alwilda being on the short side for an SotD selection at 13/8, that there was still some value in the price. That proved to be the case, as she was eventually sent off at an SP of 4/5!

Unfortunately she was unable to justify the money, as she went down by just over a length, having being squeezed out of it late on. She was locked in a very tight 3-way battle in the closing stages, but the winner came around the outside and pretty much stole the race. Our mount, whilst giving us good value in the bet, never looked like an odds on favourite, but would have won if she could have found a little more when required.

We're heading to the North East today for a 10-runner, Class 5 handicap, where the going will be soft over the 1m 6.5f trip for the ...

2.40 Newcastle

Where today's selection, the 4yr old bay filly Key Gold, makes her first start for her third trainer, Richard Fahey, whose yard is back amongst the winners after a bit of a lean spell.

Blindly backing horses making their debut for Richard Fahey, after they've been running elsewhere, has shown a decent profit in the last couple of years, albeit from a small sample size. Four winners from twenty-three handicap races on their yard debut means a reasonable strike rate of 17.4%, but excellent profits of 17.47pts represents a return on stakes of almost 76%.

Key Gold hasn't raced for almost 10 weeks now, but that isn't really a concern either. Mr Fahey has an excellent record with horses coming back from a break of two to eight months. Since the start of 2011, he has a 16% strike rate (58/363) with such runners for profits of 150.25pts (+41.4% ROI) and when any of those 363 runners were in the 6/4 to 4/1 price band, the figures are 20 winners from 61 (32.8%) for 20.6pts (+33.7% ROI) profit.

Of the above 363 runners, 71 were returning after a short break of just two to three months with a dozen (16.9%) of those 71 going on to win for profits of 53.11pts (+74.8% ROI) with a 5/11 record for 7.73pts with horses coming off a break of two to three months and priced at 4/1 or under.

Key Gold won a couple of races over 1m4f last year for Mark Johnston and looked like she needed further before a short and unsuccessful 2-race stint with Ian McInnes, before his well-publicised three-year ban was imposed in June. Ian's former charges are performing pretty well at present and I'd expect a similar level of performance from this one today.

Her two wins last term came off marks of 72 and 69, yet she's here on a mark of 67 and with a decent claimer (George Chaloner) on board able to take another 5lbs off, she should be very competitive at a reasonable price this afternoon.

The market looks fairly compacted for this one, but I'm happy to be able to get 4/1 BOG about Key Gold today, especially when she's only 4.8 on betfair. I've gone with Ladbrokes, but Betfred is also offering 4/1, so I suggest that you...

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