Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day 07/08

Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

No excuses offered for yesterday's performance: I fully expected Rockweiller to at least grab a place, but he was disappointing, if the truth be told. I took 11/2 about him in the morning and he went off at 9/2. There didn't seem to be any lack of effort, but when the leaders pressed the button, he had nothing extra to give. Just looking at the fact he finished 4th doesn't tell the whole story, he was actually more than 13 lengths behind the winner.

So, today we're back on grass and heading up to North Yorkshire, where our selected jockey has developed a bit of a liking for this particular course. The race in question is a Class 5 Handicap over a trip just 8 yards shy of 6 furlongs. The ground is good to firm (firm in places) and eleven runners are due to be loaded up for the...

3.20 Catterick

Our jockey in question today is Silvestre de Souza and his record at Catterick is excellent. 50 winners from 245 rides represents a strike rate in excess of 20% and these winners have generated level stakes profits of almost 138pts at SP. That's a very healthy profit of over 56% on any stakes wagered. This career 20% strike rate has actually been at 21.3% for the last couple of years, so we're not relying on old data here to support our stats.

As it happens, Silvestre has a busy day ahead of him, the last race of the 7-race card is the only race he isn't scheduled to contest. You can make a good case for all his rides today, but the one I like the best is Ferdy in the 3.20. This horse is still unexposed in these sprint handicaps and won well here last time out (2 weeks ago) over course and distance, beating Ruth Carr's Chosen One quite comfortably in the end. Chosen One reappeared 4 days later and came home a winner!

High draws tend to fare best here over 6 furlongs and Ferdy is drawn 11 of 11 today, he was 11 of 12 last time out, so that should also count in his favour. The main challenge today is likely to come from Oakbrook, who won the second division of Ferdy's successful outing here, but that race didn't look as strong as the first division and our mount looked far more impressive.

The best price for Ferdy at the moment is 4/1 BOG with a variety of firms: you take your pick! But if you choose to leave it later, be sure to come back and...

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.20 Catterick.

PS If we look at Mr de Souza's record on horses priced 6/1 or under, we can then see his strike rate increase to an impressive 30%!

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 7th August 2012

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Graham,
      Yes, of course the sign was there! I just figured Ferdy had a great chance and represented better value for the price on offer.
      Fortunately, I backed all of them and made a small profit. Hopefully some others on here will have followed the advice.

      All the best,

      1. Patrick

        Backed them all except Ferdy following your advice in all but that respect. Also managed to do the same with two or hughesies at bath so a good day. Thanks Chris…..

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