Stat of the Day, 6th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2013

A tough battle yesterday with less than three parts of a length separating the first three home and we had to settle for being the meat in the sandwich, as Validus was headed late on and finished 2nd, a half-length behind the winner, Mabait, who was carrying a stone less than our runner.

Validus proved a good pick for you traders, though, as we got on at 7/2 and he was sent off at 3/1 for a small arb, but more tellingly, he hit 1.34 in running for those quick enough to get out and secure a result equivalent to a 23/10 winner.

Hurdle action in Staffordshire today in the...

5.05 Uttoxeter

Where I'm looking for 5/2 shot Hail Tiberius to score for the second time inside five days, following a bit of a resurgence.

As you know, I'm keen on backing horses that won last time out and are turned out fairly quickly afterwards. I've put a few horses up for SotD from my "Back to Form" micro system, which looks for horses running with 30 days of their last run, which had to be a winning one, of course. This comes with a proviso that the horse had to have been unplaced in at least three consecutive runs before the win.

Hail Tiberius certainly fits that mould: a form line over hurdles of 9P6720001 is the kind of thing I look for. His three zeroes actually represent the following: 13th of 14 (beaten by 89l), 10/14 (76l) and 11/1 (43l) before winning at Chepstow on Tuesday by 2.5 lengths off the same mark of 83 as his previous race!

Now, horses who qualify for this micro system, which has a 6/1 odds cap, have won 48 of 158 races this year alone, a strike rate of 30.4% generating level stakes profits of 39.4pts or 24.9% of stakes.

Those are based on running within 30 days of the return to form, of course. With a 5-day limit on their return, the figures are 3 from 6 for 5.42pts.

In fact, hurdlers who won last time out and run again within 5 days have historically done well at the sharp end of the market. Since 2009, such horses turned back out at odds below 7/2 have won 93 of 153 races, a fantastic 48.2% strike rate and the level stakes profits of 33.85pts (+17.54% ROI) are well worth having.

Hail Tiberius took advantage of a mark that had dropped from 103 to 83 to score last time out and running off just 85 today looks set to repeat the feat the feat in a race that looks more like a seller than a Class 5 Handicap, if truth be told.

As I said at the top of the piece Hail Tiberius is a 5/2 shot and this BOG price is pretty widely available. I've gone with BetVictor today, but you really should...

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