Stat of the Day, 6th October 2012

Stat of the Day 06/10

Stat of the Day 06/10

Stat of the Day, 6th October 2012

It was another blank day of us yesterday, as Sally's Swansong was very disappointing. She never got involved at all and delivered a pretty tame effort if truth be told. Stable mate Ballarina wasn't much better, having faded badly late on, but at least had a run for the money.

And on to today, we're moving back onto the turf for a three and a half mile soft ground slog in West Sussex. Eleven runners are still set to go to post for a Class 5 Handicap Hurdle in the...

4.35 Fontwell

Trainer Martin Keighley has an excellent record in handicap hurdle races here at Fontwell with 3 winners and 2 places from 9 runs over the last couple of years, returning a level stakes profit of 11pts.

He runs just one handicap hurdler today: Always Bold.

Always Bold was a dual C&D winner on soft ground around this time last year and was only beaten half-a-length by Akbabend over 2m7f here last month, so he's already in decent nick. That race was evidently too short for him and the extra 4 fulronmgs today should suit him better.

This doesn't look to be a race with too much quality and the conditions do seem right for our mount today. he has won three times at today's distance, he has won three times (from just six) on soft ground, he has of course won twice at the track and been placed once: just from 5 attempts. And finally, his best runs have all come when Alain Cawley has been in the saddle, as he is again today.

Always Bold is very likely to be favourite today and I think he will fully justify that tag, but the 7/2 BOG still available at Betfred looks a decent price to me, so I'm in for a 1pt win , but as always I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.35 Fontwell.

26 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 6th October 2012

  1. chris

    I have just noticed Fontwell 4.35 Always bold was 10-10 when it came 2nd at Font on the 9th of September today it carries 11-11, that is a whopping +17lbs it has to carry today. My limit is +9lbs. It has carried this weight before but never got in the frame. Problem is i have already put my bet on! I must take more care with these things
    So i think Kahsabelle and Heezagrey may be the answer but Heezagrey is at top weight as well!

  2. chris

    How can i be so wrong and right at the same time???? + 17LBS ONE FOR THE BLACK BOOK WELL IMPRESSED AND BYE 5 LENGTHS!!! . It even paid out on the each ways for savers for us. Great!!!

  3. Jim Hdez

    Glad you didn’t research too well, you nearly didn’t put it up as a bet !!.
    Won very nicely. Been told Olympic Glory will win tomorrow. I’ve researched
    it thoroughly and I’m 100% happy.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Jim,

      I’m not sure who you’re talking to here.
      Who didn’t research it and who nearly didn’t put the bet up?

      Chris (admin)

  4. chris


    Someone told me a story once, and it goes like this.

    If you where racing Usane Bolt ( it was Linford Christie in my day) over a ploughed field, Who would win???
    Give him 10 bags of sugar to carry and even i think i might have a chance of a win.

    This has stood good ground for me over a long time and today is the first time i have been proven wrong, and in what great style i was proven wrong!!! Mark my words this horse will go far, But in general i will never go over +10lbs from its last place. +9lbs depending on the race. This has stood me in good stead and proved some very profitable wins against odds on favs. please use this on every race you look at and enjoy the results.

    Good Luck


  5. oneman

    Hi Ronnie Combo. Thanks for your reply.

    Sorry but i am a different Chris!!! from this site. I must change my user name. I will try using oneman in future just to stop any confusion. Thanks again.

  6. oneman

    Sorry all, for the confusion but Chris will still be our god on this site and one to follow. i have changed my user name to oneman. Remember Chris gave us the fantastic write up on Always Bold and i was the one to panic and run for the savers. I was wrong this time but it all worked out well in the end.

    King Regards

    (sorry oneman)

      1. ONEMAN

        Just a higher intellect of past experiences then??? That spans a different Parallel world from us All!! LOL. LOL.!!!

        What happens if the portal folds in and closes??? Will we have a second coming or do we have to survive the evil bookies on our own. LOL, LOL.

  7. oneman

    Did any one go with the 2 day Long champ on here ??? take a look if you can sort the odds out. there is another day on this

    Just my thoughts

    Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe (Group 1): Longchamp, Sunday 3.25pm

    Statistically speaking, the strongest criteria for winners this century is: age 3-5YO, min 3 runs in Europe, draw 1-7, not JPN or USA bred, max 20/1 SP, ran in last 21 to 35 days. This would have found (9/12) winners – if you had bet all qualifiers the current result is 9-33 (27.3% SR), +41.84pts (+126.80% ROI) – although this return much enhanced in 2011 by Danedream ( my choice unfortunately). This year the shortlist is: CAMELOT( but i do not think he will do this, so he is out) & SAONOIS, with YELLOW AND GREEN/ SOLEMIA /MEANDRE a possible if starting at 20/1 or less.

    Good Luck.

    Chris. (one man)

      1. oneman

        Hi matt.

        I am getting very confused on here? did you give us the exellent 2nd to 6th October plan, that has been so good this week + the 2 day french stuff, with one day left???

        Am i on the right lines here???

        Know matter what what. Thanks for a great week!!!! and long may it continue. Thanks again. great in depth stuff.


        Chris (oneman)

      2. oneman

        Matt , Matt, Matt, I am so tired with looking through this site and having to change my name to oneman as it was the same as Chris W,( admin), it had to change. to stop any confusion

        The stupid thing is that i want to say A big thanks to you. Love your work.( not sure why i said stupid). again just a big thanks and i love the way you think.

        Chris (oneman)

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Johnny,
      I personally believe that the 5/2 returned today was about the right price. But even with the withdrawals, Betfred paid out at 3.325 to 1 from the original advised price of 7/2. So we still got the value today.

      Chris (admin)

  8. Jim Hdez

    To Chris (admin), a little confusion !!. Another Chris posted the first comment here, and thought it was you !!!. Well Done today. Keep up good work.
    Any thoughts on Olympic Glory tomorrow at Longchamp.
    Personally think 5/2 is cracking value.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Jim,

      To be honest, I’ve not had a proper look at tomorrow’s cards, other than to,have an e/w punt on Kesampour at 50/1.

      Matt, however, has written a very good piece previewing the action for us all.

      Chris (admin)

    2. oneman

      I never thought, or pretended to be Chris W. ( admin) It was just the fact that my first name is Chris as.well. So i have now changed it to stop any confusion!!! simple. I am now. Oneman.

  9. Chris

    I am not sure I should be posting, being another Chris, but just wanted to say a big thanks to Chris W. for excellent Stat of the Day, looked the winner virtually the whole way round and saved what was a bad day .

    Hoping Saonois will come up trumps tomorrow and would highly recommend Matt’s in depth and informative Arc preview.

    Cheers, Chris (not Chris W.)

    1. oneman

      Hi Chris.
      Are you thanking me or the site Chris w.?? (admin) when you said that or me as i am now Known as oneman ( i hope ) . You are going to have too swap your name just to stop confusion, or better still, lets all stick to Chris! ( nothing to gain by doing things the same way) Ask Edison! Enjoy All.

      Good luck.

      Chris Sorry (oneman)

  10. Bob Smith

    Hi Chris – Great win, we are back on track ! Sorry for late reply – went out for meal last nite come home and find Always Bold has just paid for it ! Think I’ll keep out of the yes i did/no I did’nt argument. Suffice to say you and matt are Number One.


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