Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Mush Mir ran better than his finishing position suggests yesterday, and will be winning again soon (in a small field when he can lead).

Today it's the fibresand, an excellent trainer with a brilliant record at the course, and the…

3.40 Southwell

One of the most under-rated and under-stated of flat trainers, is Hughie Morrison. His record, in handicaps especially, in recent years bears close scrutiny, despite a leaner time this term.

On Southwell's deep surface, his record is second to none, with 28 winners from 89 runners (30.34%) since 2005. Those winners have netted profits of 48.77 units at SP.

Today he saddles the lightly raced maiden, Place That Face, and she looks to have her best chance of victory yet. So far, in a five race career, she's finished second twice and third twice. Her latest run was a silver medal over course and distance in a similar race to this, where she was no match for the winner but had everything else a length and a half and more behind.

That was her first run since February and she's entitled to be a lick fitter here. The opposition is typically modest - we rarely see a future top class racer exit a Southwell maiden -  and Gaelic Wizard might be the chief threat. But that fellow gives the impression he's a weak finisher as he's been beaten by a neck or less on his last three starts.

This will also be the Wizard's first attempt at Southwell's more testing strip, and I'd prefer to side with a filly which has shown she can act on it, as not all horses do. Place That Face looks like she does.

It's not a two horse race, though, as both Ella Fitzgerald and Finefrenzyrolling offer a fair level of form.

But Hughie knows what he's doing, and his filly has improvement on her second start off a break, and I'm betting win only Place That Face. No odds at time of writing, but I'm expecting around 11/4 to be available (as it is on Betfair currently).

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.40 Southwell

 

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 6th November 2012

  1. Chris

    Judging by the time of day you put SoTD up recently I would say you are on night duty for a certain little man!…..It’ll all be worth it in the end!…..Keep plugging away with SoTD too, it’ll turn around shortly, its too good not to.

  2. Mondo

    As a regular backer of the SotD, I was a bit dismayed to see Mush Mir up against the “Emma In November” trainer profit making system. However, I chanced half a point (£2.50)on Mush and wasn’t surprised that my tenner on Emma’s Fox Appeal (also tipped on Betfolio) was well bet and returned at a cracking 15/2. Today, it’s back to the fiver – at only 9/4 now, alas – on Place That Face.

    1. Chris

      Indeed, I wish they’d come back…..its quite reassuring to know they’re still out there, looking for the holy grail, slagging everyone else off because they don’t know how to stop losing their money. Maybe they’ll win big one day, their law of averages says they should.

  3. ONEMAN

    Not sure, what all the bitching is a bout??? Please take a step back and look at the big picture. No need for the negative or bragging about the positive. Matt/chris/Mal/Ian/ ANDY!!! gives there best excellent opinion. giving a calculated risk on it! Just pass all the luck you have been given and pass it on and get it back 3 fold After. Hows that for A fav bet for us all!!!( hate this negative attitude of late. It happens, expect it and a just, your bank. Its part of the whole story. Good luck and enjoy.

    Kind regards

    Chris

    1. Chris

      I wouldn’t call it bitching Oneman…..I was just mocking the stereotypical mug punter that complains about a decent service like SoTD and that I find their type of comments amusing.

      I’ve not actually seen these posts on here recently myself though! But hey, these people and their comments pop up everywhere from time to time.

      Anyway I don’t believe this service can fail over time using the same methods only evolve as stats change over time. Does it matter if SoTD fails this month? I don’t think so, if it makes half of the previous years profit which I believe was around 100 points, then that is still a healthy 13-14% profit.

      1. ONEMAN

        O.K. Chris. Bitching may have been the wrong word to use and i certainly was not trying to single any one out. but i hope everyone got the jist. Just no need.

  4. Chris

    Hi Matt, just wanted to throw some hindsight into today’s pick as I was doing some boy/girl angle searching research today. Hughie Morrison’s stats are impressive like you say, but his fillies are a long way behind the fella’s. Since 2008 the girls are on 19% and the boys are on 26% with profits standing at a measly 84p for girls and a whopping £55.63 for the boys. Not much to shout about between Handicaps, but Maiden races turns everything on its head which surprised me. Girls get 21% with a £20.36 profit and the boys are flailing around with a £1.66 profit but a 28% win rate. You probably know all this already, but I’m having a posting frenzy today!

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