Stat of the Day, 6th January 2014
Despite a 35p in the pound reduction in our winnings yesterday, the 2.28/1 returned from Beau Lake's success was still comfortably more satisfying than the 7/4 SP returned to those people not taking an early BOG price.
I know that both myself and Matt tend to bang on about it a little bit from time to time, but can you really afford to be leaving money on the table after a winning bet? I know I can't!
As for yesterday's race, Gavin Sheehan rode the horse perfectly in testing conditions. He led pretty much from the off and made all, the horse jumped well enough, bar a mistake at the last and he stayed on well to win by almost five lengths.
More heavy ground to deal with today as we tackle the...
Warren Greatrex's last dozen runners here at Southwell have finished as follows: 31121P123612, five winners and five placed from just twelve. The five winners have helped his followers to a level stakes profit of just over 8pts, an ROI of 67%.
Warren has just the one runner today and that's the racecourse debutant Silent Knight, who comes here on the back of a 4 lengths victory over 3 miles in a point to point event at Tattersalls Farm, Ireland, ensuring that stamina shouldn't be his downfall here.
Just like yesterday, Gavin Sheehan takes the ride and a similar performance wouldn't go amiss!
Gavin has achieved nine winners from the forty-two, sub-20/1 runners he has ridden for Mr Greatrex, a 21.4% strike rate leading to 27.5pts level stakes profit, a return of 65.5% above stakes.
When using his 3lb claim (like today!) Gavin is 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 29.3pts (+83.7% ROI) on those runners, of which his record over hurdles is 7/24 (29.2% SR) for 33.9pts (+141.3% ROI) profit.
Thirteen of the twenty-four above have made the frame for a 54.2% place strike rate, making the Greatrex/Sheehan combination a profitable one even at E/W stakes.
Silent Knight represents the only action for both trainer and jockey, so I'm hoping he pays the bills today. His points win over a longer trip should ensure he's fit enough and both his previous runs have been on testing ground, so he should handle the conditions well enough.
His lack of UK racing makes him a bit of an unknown quantity, but he's also obviously unexposed in a race where none of hs rivals look suited to the heavy ground. Between the 10 of them, they have mustered 1 win from 17 on soft ground and 0/2 on heavy, suggesting that it could be a struggle for some of these today.
Silent Knight is currently available at 10/1 BOG with SkyBet, so it's a safety first 0.5pts E/W bet for me today. It might look like a bit of a punt, but those odds still look generous. I should add that BetInternet are offering the same price, so be sure to...