Stat of the Day, 5th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2013

Outback Traveller pretty much made all under an enterprising ride by William Buick yesterday to land us a nice 11/4 winner, once more highlighting the need to use a BOG bookie. Our selection was well backed throughout the day and was eventually sent off as the 7/4 fav. He was drawn 6 of 12 with his main rival in the best 12 stall nearest the rail, but our mount was sharply away and quickly grabbed the stands rail and held position throughout.

He was only very briefly headed 3f out, but when push came to shove, he eased clear and won by the best part of two lengths going away, bringing September's tally to three wins from four.

I'm looking at a race closer to home (my home, anyway! :D) as we tackle the...

2.30 Haydock

Where the progressive 3 yr old Paradise Watch makes his handicap debut for Luca Cumani.

Luca Cumani's handicap debutants are profitable to back blindly with no restrictions. In the last four seasons alone he has had a 28.2% strike rate (24 winners from 85) for an excellent profit figure of 45.8pts, or 53.9% of stakes.

On closer inspection, you'll be pleased to know that the strike rate isn't artificially high with a swathe of odds on jollies, nor is there one big winner skewing the profit/loss account. In fact, all 24 winners were at odds against and all were priced at 12/1 or under and cam from just 76 runners. This 31.6% strike rate generated profits of 54.8pts, a return on stakes of 72.1%.

Also, in that 4yr period the yard's record with 3yr olds making their handicap debut with market support ie priced between 11/10 (no odds on, remember?) and 6/1 is very good indeed. 16 winners from 44 is a strike rate of almost 36.4% and has provided backers with profits of 20.4pts (+46.3% ROI).

Paradise Watch has improved in each of his three maiden contests to date: all over 7 furlongs, so he steps up in trip today, as well as making his handicap debut. He was third (of 11) on debut at Lingfield in June, before finished 2nd (of 7) at Doncaster five weeks later.

He reappeared at Salisbury another six weeks later on (20 days ago) and opened his account quite comfortably, beating It's Taboo (who has since won at Ffos Las) by two lengths and was pulling further clear at the end.

Paradise Watch is a Royal Applause gelding and his breeding allied to his 70,000 gns price tag as a yearling suggests that he's expected to be pretty useful and his opening handicap mark of 80 might prove to be a little on the lenient side here.

Despite stepping up an extra furlong here, the manner in which he was pulling away at Salisbury last time out bodes well for him staying the trip and if push comes to shove and a battling finish is needed, jockey Kieran Fallon tends to be the right man for the job.

The early market shows Bet365 offering 9/2 BOG at the moment and that looks very generous to me indeed, so the play for Thursday is a 1pt win bet on Paradise Watch at 9/2 BOG with Bet365.

I've written this up very early (just after 9pm), as I'm on airport duty ensuring my son makes his 10am flight to Australia, so I'd advise a swift check on the market before placing your wager. To do so, simply...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Haydock

***Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service
every day, just click here for more details.***

 

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 5th September 2013

  1. Josh W

    hi Chris, great start to the month well done. I have just backed Conor Zur and Snooky both EW at 16/1 in this very race before reading your post. Your selection and Nosedas are very much feared!

    i would be interested to see how Cumani’s horses making their Hnc-debut on the back of a maiden win get on compared to those with just 3 maiden runs and no wins. in theory when they have not won he is potentially hiding its true handicap mark, and as such, maybe those that won their previous maiden before handicap debut have not got so much up their sleeve?. Maybe it makes no difference but the breakdown would be interesting nonetheless.

    Josh

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.