Stat of the Day, 5th October 2012

Stat of the Day 05/10

Stat of the Day 05/10

Stat of the Day, 5th October 2012

Well, a victory of sorts yesterday, as Saaboog made us a small profit on our 8/1 E/W bet. We'll not get rich off the back of her third place finish, but it gets October moving for us at least. We were also proved right to take the 8/1 on offer, as she was sent off at 6/1.  Despite hitting the front a quarter-mile from home, she ever actually looked like she was going to win the race and was headed in the last furlong and then lost 2nd place close to home.

And on to today, and it's another filly running on an all-weather track! We're off to Dunstall Park in the West Midlands for another tea-time handicap on the Polytrack: this one is a Class 6 event over a mile and we're expecting 13 runners to line up for the...

5.45 Wolverhampton

Eric Alston didn't run a single horse at Wolverhampton between 28th February and 12th September this year, as he concentrated his efforts on his turf campaign. Yet since then he has contested three races at the track on the 13th, 22nd and 29th of last month. All 3 horses came back as winners at odds of 11/1, 10/3 and 9/2 for a profit approaching 19pts. He is clearly picking and choosing his Wolverhampton races and we're on alert that he's represented again today.

Today's SotD selection is Sally's Swansong and she was responsible for two of those 3 wins last month, yet she's not what you'd normally consider a success story!

Sally's Swansong has only won 3 races to date in a 28-race career, but all three previous wins have been over this course & distance and we're looking for her to make it four today and she is in truly excellent form at present and should go well again today after a two-week rest.

After having won on both her last two visits to Dunstall Park (9 days apart last month) she returns seeking a Course & Distance hat trick. She had a poor draw last time out (drawn 10 of 12), but was good enough to overcome the draw and make it to the front positions before being hampered and carried out to the left by the eventual runner-up Nine Before Ten. She still managed to stay on despite this interference to win by a neck and I'm sure that the margin of victory would have been much greater given a clear run.

The draw is slightly kinder to her today, as she's in the middle of the stalls (drawn 7 of 13) and I'd expect her to jump out quickly and take a prominent position from the start, she might even take it on herself.

She has been raised 4lbs for those back to back C&D wins, but I think she still has enough in the locker to take this one and will undoubtedly go off as favourite. This is about right as I consider her the best horse in the race and when I wrote this, only bet365 had their prices up. I was fairly pleased to see them offering 7/2 because I thought she might actually be a good point lower than that, so I've taken Sally's Swansong as a 1pt win bet at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, but I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.45 Wolverhampton.

PS It's also worth noting that Eric Alston's only other runner: Ballarina actually runs in this same race and at 7/1 would also represent a decent E/W chance.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 5th October 2012

  1. Jim Hdez

    Willy Hills couldn’t hold on to 4/1 !!. Sally’s Swansong now 7/2 across the board.
    Strange that next in the betting is around 9/1 ?.
    Should this favourite be a lot shorter ???

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Jim,

      I’d expect it to shorten up by at least a point during the day, that’s why i was happy to take 7/2 at 1am!
      I also now think that Ballarina is a good E/W prospect at 11/1 with Betfred.


  2. Jim Hdez

    Hi Chris, good morning to you sir.
    With this money on Liberal Lady (10/1into5/1) , I think 4/1 is a
    Value price about Sally’s Swansong. Interestingly Ladbrokes were
    Going EVENS for a place bet, but now back to 4/5.
    Ballerina doesn’t look fancied in the betting(14/1).

  3. Johnny5

    Bet365 the place to go for a ‘private’ Alston Crfc

    They are BOG on forecasts as well as win bets and the prices for Sally and Ballerina forecasts are 49/1 56/1 – and unless there’s NR this is a returned price .

    Here’s hoping !! Good spot Chris …

  4. Johnny5

    Ballerina looks the market mover now Chris!

    Hills were 5-1 when all others were 10-11/1 so they’ve got a knowledge somewhere on this one

    I feel an Alston ‘sting’ in work here with Sally being the bolt against his others price

    Hope not for your Sotd figures…

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