Stat of the Day, 5th August 2012

Stat of the Day 05/08

Stat of the Day 05/08

Stat of the Day, 5th August 2012

The drought currently blighting myself and SotD showed no sign of abating on Saturday, as Royal Riviera was a disappointing 7th. My initial 12/1 bet looked good value as our selection touched 6/1, before reaching an SP of 13/2, but that's where the good news ended, as we finished a long way from making the frame.

Still, if at first you don't succeed, try and try again, they say. With this in mind, we're off to Berkshire for a Class 4 Maiden Stakes for 2 yr olds. The ground is set to be good to firm and we're expecting twelve runners to do battle over 6 furlongs in the...

2.40 Newbury

Trainer Roger Charlton has an excellent record at Newbury in the last couple of years with an overall strike rate of around 23% , bringing home 53pts from 65 bets: a return of 81.5% on stakes. This win strike rate is pretty much mirrored at non-handicap level, but the ROI is raised to 118.4%, courtesy of 58pts profit from just 49 runners.

Mr Charlton has just the one runner at Newbury, it's a non-handicap race and we're looking to Derwent to keep Roger's excellent run going and also to reignite SotD's flame for August. This is only our selection's second outing and he looked quite green on debut, finishing 6th at Windsor four weeks ago. Connections fully expect him to come on for that run and his breeding suggests he will win races. He's a half-brother to Three Valleys who won the Coventry Stakes for Roger Charlton and also half-brother to five other 2yr old winners. His full sister Nimble Thimble shed her maiden tag last month in only her second outing too, so maybe there's another omen for us.

Derwent will be ridden by James Doyle, no stranger to Newbury himself: he has a 5 from 23 record in non-handicap races here (21.7%) and has generated a level stakes profit of 39pts (ROI of 170%) from those 23 rides.

I wrote this piece late on Saturday evening, so no odds were available to me other than the 6.2 (5/1 after commission) on Betfair. I'd expect us to be able to secure a price of around 6/1 at some point, but for the purpose of keeping records for SotD, I shall take Betfair SP as my guide, but I strongly suggest that you...

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.40 Newbury.

 

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 5th August 2012

  1. Kate Austin

    Pescott has 1 -Albanara? By Albanova anyway. This is the broodmare line that Kirsten Rausin has developed – member Alborada? This is the 1 for me at Newbury Matt. Do u think u wld be allowed to take a little trip after Xmas? Hv made some v serious contacts in Ireland. U might be inerested in 1 thing I’m going to try to arrange.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thanks, Patrick, I needed that one.
      It was unfortunate that the non-runner affected the market so badly. I took the 6.2 on offer on betfair last night, but couldn’t use it as my advised price, due to the low liquidity.
      The betfair reduction brought my price down to 4.28, but that’s still a good way clear of the 3.11 paid out. However, at the end of the day, it’s another 2pts in the SotD bank.

      Cheers,
      Chris

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