Stat of the Day, 5th April 2013
Sometimes this wonderful sport we follow leaves you scratching your head and pulling your hair out at the same time. Yesterday's selection looked a solid pick on the stats presented. He seemed a decent value proposition at 12/1 too. However, the market eventually disagreed, he drifted out to 20/1 and ran a stinker, trooping home last of nine.
My own personal form on SotD has been poor of late, but the selections have in the main performed well without winning often enough. Yesterday's, however, was pretty terrible. I fly off to warmer climes tomorrow, so I've two more chances to drag myself off the cold list starting today in the...
It's generally accepted that trainers are creatures of habit and that they tend to stick pretty rigidly to their favoured training methods. This means that a yard is normally in decent nick at the same time of year, each year and Richard Fahey is no exception to this rule.
If we take a look at how his handicappers run in April, we can see that over the last four years, his horses have won 19.69% of their turf handicap races in April, when priced at 12/1 or under. This is a decent strike rate for a large 193 runner sample. The 38 winners from that group have generated some 48.83pts (25.3% ROI) profit.
Now whilst those returns aren't going to make us rich overnight, they do give us a reasonable point to start from.
Now, some trainers like to keep horses busy through the winter by running them on the All-Weather, others choose to give their charges a rest. When I looked at Mr Fahey's runners in April, I noticed that his better results came from the horses that were running fresh, having had a rest of between two and five months ie long enough to recharge the batteries, but not long enough to become rusty.
This does admittedly reduce the sample size somewhat, but those "fresher" horses have won six times from thirteen attempts with that 46.15% strike rate generating 44.33pts profit, equivalent to some 341% of stakes wagered.
Richard has just one runner anywhere today, Dolphin Village, running in an April turf handicap, priced below 12/1 and making its seasonal reappearance after a break of almost 4 months. His last turf outing was at Musselburgh, where he was second over a mile on heavy ground and the feeling was that he'd have liked it a little quicker underfoot and a longer trip.
Today is his handicap debut and he gets quicker ground than that Musselburgh: it's good to soft today and the trip is 1m 2f, so hopefully this will prove to be exactly what he wanted. As always, it's a matter of trust with horses making their first run after a break, but the yard does tend to be "ready" around this time and some of the "unknown variables" should help us get a decent enough price for our selection, whilst the booking of Paul Hanagan as jockey should be seen as a positive for us
7/1 BOG is widely available this morning (as of 10.00am, anyway!), so I'm going to hedge my bets with a 0.5pts E/W bet on Dolphin Village at 7/1 BOG. I've gone with BetVictor today, but for your preferred bookmaker, simply...