Stat of the Day, 4th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2013

Matt's selection was a non-runner yesterday, so we kept our powder dry there I'm still a little under the weather, so today's post is shorter than usual, but the same amount of research has gone into it as normal.

A long distance 2m flat handicap awaits us today in the...

4.15 Ascot

Where I'm backing Ballinderry Boy at 4/1 with Stan James.

Ballinderry Boy is trained by Andrew Balding and will be ridden by the very talented newcomer Oisin Murphy with his valuable 5lb claim. I've gone for this one for the following reasons.

Andrew Balding has used a 5lb claimer in 35 handicap races in the last 12 months with 11 winners (31.43% SR) and 52.3pts profit (+149.43%) at level stakes.
With a 5/1 odds cap applied to those 35 runners, the record is 8/22 (36.36%) for profits of 19.04pts (+86.55%).

Of those 35 rides, 7 of them featured Oisin Murphy as jockey, with him winning three times (42.86%) for 29.91pts profit, an ROI of some 427.29%. His record with the 5/1 odds cap is 2/3 for 8.97pts (+299%) profit.

The horse itself is in good form and has been steadily improving with every run. Finishes of 3rd, 3rd and 2nd over increasing trips on 1m4f, 1m6f and 2m were followed by his first victory 4 weeks ago over today's trip.

And although he has gone up 10lbs for his recent good form, this is an open age handicap and he gets an 11lb weight for age allowance for being a 3 yr old.
As I said at the top, I've taken 4/1 BOG with Stan James, which looks quite generous to me. But to see what your favoured bookie is offering...

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Here is today's racecard!

 

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