Stat of the Day, 4th January 2014
Pick A Little took the lead inside the final furlong yesterday and once he hit the front, there was only going to be one winner. The final margin of 2 lengths doesn't really show how comfortably he won, but that's not really of importance now!
Advised at 11/4 BOG on the back of a stack of stats, he was duly returned at 2/1, giving the BOG backers a much better return once again.
We're going back to chasing today in the...
Where Deciding Moment is currently the 5/2 favourite and probably rightly so, as I expect him to make it back to back course and distance wins here.
He was a winner here 10 weeks ago on his chasing debut over course and distance, when he led from 2 out and controlled the remainder of the race, cruising to a 5 lengths victory at massive odds of 25/1.
In 2013, 95 horses won at 25/1 or higher before being sent at odds of 8/1 or less in their next race. From those 95 runners, there were 24 winners producing 45pts profit. That's a 25.3% strike rate giving an ROI of 47.4%.
Deciding Moment also has the benefit of course and distance experience gained during that win and Wincanton is one of those tracks that seems to favour former C&D winners.
Last time out winners with CD by their name on the racecard at Wincanton historically have a 34% strike rate when priced below 5/1 on their return here.
2013 saw 17 former such C&D winners return here off the back of a win and all were priced at 9/1 or under, a sure sign that they do attract market support. 6 of those 17 were returned as winners for a 35.3% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 14.7pts, or 86.4% ROI.
Deciding Moment has had a little rest since that debut chase victory and he's still very much unexposed at this discipline. He's up 7lbs for that win, but he's sure to improve for that first effort and he won well enough last time out to suggest he'll go well again here today.
It should also be noted that although his trainer Ben de Haan has only sent 40 runners to this track in 10 years, he has saddled up 9 winners at a profit of 45.9pts and his chasers are 5/13 for 35.3pts here.
All of which leads me to a 1pt win bet on Deciding Moment at 5/2 BOG. I've placed my bet with Coral, but that same price is also available at Stan James. For all the other bookies' odds...