Stat of the Day, 4th December 2012

Stat of the Day 04/12/12

Stat of the Day 04/12/12

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2012

So, we finally got the month underway yesterday, but it was another runner-up position for us, I'm afraid. Madame Jasmine gave her usual gutsy determined Plumpton effort, but she found one just too good, as "the Champ" hustled and cajoled the favourite to a victory, beating our mount by less than two lengths. We're staying on the turf again today, but we're going to tackle the larger obstacles, as we head off to Northamptonshire for a nine runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase over 2 miles 3.5 furlongs, it's the...

12.45 Towcester

Grant Cann's chasers seem to go particularly well at Towcester, which is probably why he sends more chasers here than he does anywhere else with the exception of Exeter which is his local track, less than 20 miles from his Cullompton base. Over the years, Grant has sent a total of 12 chasers on the 350-mile, 6 hour round trip to Towcester, where has been rewarded with figures of 12114PU13215. Five winners from the twelve (41.67%) have produced level stakes profits of 28.63pts at SP, a return of almost 240% profit.

Each Way backers of these twelve horses have also seen eight trips (66.67%) back to the payout counter to collect profits of 36.33pts (151.38% profit).

Grant has, of course, just the one chaser at the track today in the shape of Arctic Watch, our SotD selection.

Today represents just Arctic Watch's second start in a chase, but he showed plenty of promise when finishing fourth at Taunton last month and may go better now in handicap company. He's receiving quite a chunk of weight from the more fancied runners today and this should help our 7 yr old grey on the soft ground, because he'd ideally prefer it a bit quicker, if I'm honest.

He's already won a couple of hurdle races, including one over today's trip and another over a further 3 furlongs, so he's not totally averse to getting his head in front.

Today's selection is really about weighing up the pros and cons, the trainer has an excellent record here in these events, the horse isn't overexposed as a chaser, but hasn't won yet and would prefer firmer ground than he's going to get. He has however shown the stamina to win over a trip 3 furlongs longer than today and his last chase outing was another furlong further than that.

I'm optimistic that Grant Cann will be wanting to at least cover his petrol money by getting this one into the frame and any potential doubts have been reflected in the market, where our selection is currently available at 9/1 BOG with several firms, whilst Sporting Bet go 10/1 non-BOG. I prefer to use a BOG bookmaker and today I'm using up some of non-runners refund money by staking 0.5pts E/W on Arctic Watch at 9/1 BOG with Paddy Power, but please feel free to choose your own bookmaker by going to...

Click here for the latest betting on the 12.45 Towcester

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 4th December 2012

  1. joe

    good morning best of luck today. i would just like to know how often the odds are updated on your betting site. as i was looking at sizing europes price for the king george and it showed him at 14/1at totesport. i then went onto oddschecker and it showed he has not been that price since the 17th of nov. could you ask these sites to keep their sites upto date otherwise they are of little use. thank you.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Joe

      The daily race odds are always up to date. Unfortunately, the ante post markets are not. I take this data from a 3rd party and, alas, it’s not very good. It will be a project in 2013 to bring this information in house.

      Best,
      Matt

  2. oneman

    That was unlucky and it is a shame you have to use it in your figures but that is racing, and they can all fall down. Even on the flat!!!

    I know your stats will come good again soon and you have all my luck with that and look forward to the next informative write up.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      It’s a really tricky race. On the bright side, he’s got pointing experience and has bits of form in the soft. On the down side, he’s a thirteen race maiden under rules.

      In truth, it’s not a race I’d go near – except in a placepot, when I’d have a wide dragnet and hope for an upset result – and if you’re backing him, I hope he runs well for you.

      Gun to head, and at the prices, I’d have a TINY e/w on Turbulence, who goes in the ground, stays the trip, generally jumps well (unseat last time notwithstanding), and has a feather weight.

      Best,
      Matt

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