Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2014

Saturday's runner Sharney Sike ran well enough on a rare off-day for trainer Stuart Coltherd, but suffered exactly the same fate as our selection on Friday.

Just as 24 hrs previous, I nominated a horse a couple of points longer than I'd expected to find them and took a safety-first E/W approach at 7/1. Both shortened to 5/1 and both missed out on the money by just one place, as we recorded two fourth places.

Monday's aren't generally great for racing, but each race will have a winner, so let's see if we can take the...

3.45 Kempton:

Top weighted male runners aged from 4 to 6 years old and priced at 8/1 or under have a really good record in Class 5 to 7 races for 4yr olds and over on the All-Weather.

Those who finished in the first three home last time out fared particularly well, winning 132 times from 519 attempts for a strike rate of 25.4% and level stakes profits of 177.6pts or 34.2% of stakes invested.

The 5 yr old Dimitar runs here carrying joint top weight of 9st 7lbs a fortnight after landing a similar quality handicap over today's trip at Wolverhampton at odds of 16/1.

Dimitar finished one length ahead of Conry that day and the latter was turned straight back out the day after and landing the spoils at Southwell over a mile.

The third-placed horse at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago, Strong Man, was a further two lengths back and he has since run here at Kempton four days ago, winning over today's trip. So, the form from Dimitar's win looks pretty strong.

He is trained by Johnny Farrelly who isn't one of the more recognised trainers in the game, but his horses are running well at the moment with each of his last three entrants (A/W and NH) being returned as winners.

Johnny has only ever been represented in nine A/W contests to date, but his record of three winners and two places in those nine contests is a very encouraging start indeed and if you'd staked £10 on each of the nine horses, you'd have made £225.60 proft to date, a return of over 250% above your £90 outlay.

I think Dimitar has a good chance of recording back to back victories and I'm placing a 1pt win bet at the overnight odds of 9/2 BOG with Bet365, a price also available with BetVictor. If, however, you're reading this on Monday, I strongly advise that you...

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