Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2013
A little bit of a strange one yesterday. I was happy to take 4/1 about Balti's Sister and my initial feelings seemed right as she dipped as low as 3/1 during the morning. However, she opened up at 11/2 on course and after a couple of flirtations with 6/1, she went off at that opening price.
I felt she wasn't kept quite close enough to the front to mount a serious challenge, but it's debatable whether she could have won anyway, as she didn't seem to have enough when asked to quicken. She was only beaten by 3 lengths, yet such was the nature of the sprint finish that her final position was a lowly 5th place!
So, we've already had a UK jumps race and an A/W contest this year, so it's now time we made our first venture of 2013 across the Irish Sea for a two-mile, 80-95 Handicap Hurdle on soft to heavy ground (no surprises there). Twelve runners are expected to line up for the...
This race looks a fairly open contest and when you see a race where the favourite is around the 9/2 to 5/1 mark, there's always the prospect of an E/W bet.
Today's selected race fits that bill perfectly, so we now need a horse from it to at least make the frame. This brings us to today's trainer in focus, John Joseph Hanlon.
Mr Hanlon's record at Thurles in the last couple of years has been decent enough from a place perspective, even if he doesn't have as many winners as he'd like. yet ten (43.5%) of his twenty-three runners have been placed here since the turn of 2011 for a modest profit (just under 5pts). However, if we look at hurdle races as a separate entity, we can see that his place strike rate improves to almost 54%, courtesy of seven placers from 13.
Mr Hanlon's sole representative today is of course a Thurles Hurdler and comes in the form of Do The Bookies, something we'd all love to master! In fairness, this horse is no world beater, but looks in a decent position to grab a place today. This 9yr old hasn't actually won a race yet, but does show a reasonable level of consistency, having finished in the first five home on each of his last five starts and he wears a hood today in a bid to get a bit more from him.
According to the various tissues, Do The Bookies is expected to race at around the 8/1 mark and if we go back to the trainer's track stats, we can see that he has a far better record with horses priced at 14/1 or below ie disregarding those seen to have little chance.
Since January 2011, John Joseph Hanlon's record at Thurles with horses sent off at 14/1 or less show 3 winners (21.4%) generating 10.63pts profit (72.9% POI), whilst ten of those fourteen (71.4%) have been placed, rewarding E/W punters to the tune of 22.61pts (80.75% POI).
These stats are further improved, when we look at the eight of those fourteen runners that have competed in hurdles contests. The overall record from those eight currently reads 0112232: a 25% win strike rate has produced 5.63pts profit (70.4% ROI), whilst the impressive run of seven consecutive place finishes (87.5% overall) has given E/W backers some relief in the form of 16.61pts profit: a profit of 103.8%.
At 10.30am, the average price available was 19/2, but Paddy Power were a good 1.5pts above this average, so today's play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Do The Bookies at 11/1 BOG with Paddy Power. I think there's a reasonable chance of this price constricting slightly back towards the original tissue odds, so please do...