Stat of the Day, 30th January 2014
Although a little on the short side for SotD at 2/1 BOG, I thought Taquka represented good value yesterday in what looked essentially like a two-horse race.
In fact only the shortness of the favourite stopped it being a Double Dutch race.
As it was, she drifted out to an attractive SP of 5/2 and when she kicked on a furlong from home, she looked every bit the winner.
Unfortunately, despite the best efforts of Jim Crowley she seemed to empty just before the line and a combination of her running out of steam, straying left off a true path and a flying finish from the ridiculously short 4/9 favourite meant that she finished second for the fourth time in a row.
Taquka will find a race to win very soon and many thought she'd got this one (£22,000 matched at 1.01 in-play), but she went down by a nose once the print was produced.
Kempton was the only action available yesterday and despite there being four meetings in the UK/Ireland, we're staying put for the day's last race, the...
Shaun Harris has got his horses in fine form at present with five winners and a place from ten runners in the last fortnight (3 from 6 in the last 7 days). And although he's not exactly prolific here at this track, if you'd put £10 down on each of his 47 runners here, the 7 winners (14.8% SR) would have netted you a small profit of £24.40.
Now, whilst a return of just 5.2% isn't enough to set the SotD pulse racing, it's a lead in to a bigger picture! We can discard the 0/25 record with horses priced above 12/1 for a start, giving us a record of 7/22 for 27.44pts profit. This 31.8% strike rate coupled with an ROI of 124.7% is far more to our liking.
Shaun is 2/2 here this year so far for 9pts profit, including today's sole runner Reality Show, who scored here over course and distance 11 days ago.
So, we have an in-form trainer with a good record at the track running just the one horse, but what do we know about his entry for this evening?
- He has four wins and a place from 7 efforts on All-Weather, including back-to back wins in his last two races
- He has won four times and been placed once from eight attempts at today's 1m4f trip
- His record over this trip on the A/W reads 11611 and he won on his only attempt over C&D (as above)
- Class 6 seems to be his forté, with a record reading 16611
All of which points to another good performance from Reality Show. He carries a 6lb penalty for that recent C&D victory, which actually looks a little harsh for beating the re-opposing Thane of Cawdor by just half a length, but the trainer has employed the services of useful 5lb claimer Adam Carter to offset the bulk of that hike in weight.
Adam has been riding well of late, winning three times and making the frame twice from his last six rides and today is his fourth booking from Shaun Harris, having a winner and a runner-up finish from his previous three engagements for the trainer.
Reality Show may be at a recent high of 64 for this race, but he has won off 79 in the past and if looking anything like his old best could still have something in hand at this weight.
I actually expected to get around 9/2 or 5/1 about this hat-trick seeker, but the presence of The Ginger Berry (too short at 7/4 in my opinion) means there's some value to be found if taking the favourite on.
A quick look at the market leads me to a safety first 0.5pts E/W bet on Reality Show at 7/1 BOG.
Should he win, we still make at least 4.2pts profit and we've the insurance of the place bet to cover our stakes. I'm on with Coral this morning, but the price is quite widely available, so please...