Stat of the Day, 30th March 2013
A quick catch up then as there hasn't been a SotD for a couple of days on the site. Thursday 28th saw Niceonefrankie (emailed out due to gremlins on site) anything but; Friday 29th was Good Friday and therefore no racing; which brings us to today, an extremely competitive Easter Saturday. I'm taking a chance on one at a price, in the...
A really valuable handicap, worth over £31,000 to the winner, is this. Mark Johnston is on fire at the moment, with five winners and four seconds from just twelve runners in the last week. He's obviously decided he'll support this race, and has four nags entered!
Johnston's record with 3yo handicappers (16/1 or shorter) here at Musselburgh since 2008 is impressive: 16 wins and 19 places from 78 runners, for a profit of 11.48 points.
So, we know he's a man in form, and we know his similar types go well at the track. But... he's got four entered here! What to do? Well, the sensible play is to go with the one with the best profile for the race. Step forward, Fraserburgh.
Named after a town 178 miles north of Musselburgh racecourse, Fraserburgh is likely to be popular with on-course punters. But he's got more form-based claims than that too. Indeed, in seven career starts to date, he's only been out of the frame once. His full form string reads 3272321, and his inevitable victory was by six lengths in a Southwell maiden.
It's a sure thing that this is a much stronger contest, but the step up to a mile looks bang on for a horse which has presumably been a slow maturing type. He's by crack miler, Shamardal, out of the mare which also bore smart two mile hurdler, Dodging Bullets. That's why I assume he's late maturing, given that he was an early foal and started out over five furlongs!
The good to soft ground should be spot on; the trip ought to bring improvement (though this is surmisal on my part); his handy running style will help; and, whilst he's only the third string of the Johnston quartet on market rank, I'm hopeful he can again make the frame at least.
He's 20/1 with William Hill, and they'll lob in a free bet to the same stake as your first tickle if you open an account with them today. Each way the play: a poke at a price.