Stat of the Day, 2nd May 2013
A neither here nor there run from Brass Monkey yesterday, as he neither went badly, nor did he go well. It was just nondescript, I suppose. He was held up, the pushed along for a while and then got outpaced and stayed one-paced to a 5th place finish. It goes down on our record as a -1 and we move on to Thursday.
A change of tack today, as we head west to Wales for another tea time encounter. This one is a Class 5 Maiden over 5 furlongs, where the going is expected to be good for the nine runners aiming to break their duck in the...
It's all about Richard Hannon today and his placement of horses in selected races. It's already a well-known fact that his 2 yr olds tend to fly at this time of year, winning around 24% of their races in April & May and whilst that alone isn't enough for me, it's a good starting point.
Now, Chepstow isn't a place that Mr Hannon sends too many runners to, but his record of 15 winners from 54 in non-handicap races here is something to take note of and raises genuine interest whenever he's represented in such a race here. And that 27.8% strike rate is further enhanced to 30% when we look at his 2 yr olds in isolation, courtesy of 12 wins from 40 (5 of the last 15 have won too).
At this point, I felt that his record with 2 yr olds at this time of year allied to the record of his horses (especially 2yr olds) here at Chepstow was enough for me to base today selection on, but then I remember something Matt (the boss!) told me several months ago, when he mentioned that the trainer was particularly adept at getting horses to win second time out.
So, I dug through some stats last night and I discovered that since 2008, Mr Hannon's 2yr olds have won 21.67% of their second races and that figure is particularly high here at Chepstow with 7 winners from just 15: a strike rate of 46.67% yielding 11pts level stakes profit, a return of 76.9% over stakes.
All of which brings us to Hedge End, a filly who wasn't disgraced when finishing 6th of 8 on debut in early April on the A/W at Kempton and much more is expected of this one. She fits all the above requirements re: age, time of year, number of runs, type of race, track and as Mr Hannon's only runner here today, I'd hope she was coming here to more than cover the petrol money.
If things go to plan, I expect to see Hedge End in the winners' enclosure before 5.15 this evening, so I'll be putting my money on her at 3/1 (BOG, of course) with Bet365, but to see what your bookie is offering...