Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2013
It was a satisfactory start to the new month, as Gabrial the Boss justified taking a place bet by finishing second yesterday. In truth, he was never close to winning, but those of you who got on early will have made a 0.45pt profit from the 3.00 place price, but the official BFSP was as low as 2.55, resulting in SotD recording an official profit of 0.25pts. It's a start, if nothing else!
We're heading North to the Borders today for the opening race on the card, which is a competitive-looking Class 4 Novice Hurdle. The going is reported to be Soft for the fourteen runners expected to do battle over two miles and half a furlong for the...
Ann Hamilton is hardly the most prolific of trainers. In fact, she's only sent out 42 runners (8 winners and 8 placed!) in the last twelve months, but her recent form is good, as is her record here at Kelso.
In keeping with her stable's low profile, she has only had five entries since Boxing Day, but results of 12311 would tend to suggest she's doing something right and that her horses are in good nick. This recent run of form allied to her overall record at Kelso points us in the direction of what might seem another left field punt after yesterday's selection, but I think that today's mount is overpriced, but we'll come to him shortly.
Ann's complete record at Kelso reads 13 wins (21.3%) and 24 placed in total (40%) from 61 races: generating level stakes profits at SP of 44.6pts (+73.1% POI) for the win, whilst E/W returns of 57.8pts (+48.2% POI) are more than satisfactory.
In the last four years, that record reads 9 wins (26.5%) and 13 total places (39.4%) for profits of 37.6pts (+110.6%) and 48.5pts (+73.5%) respectively.
She has a good record across all three spheres of racing here, but her hurdles record is excellent: five wins and three places from just twenty-five attempts has generated further profits of 25.8pts (103.3%) for the win bets and 24.6pts (49.2%) for the E/W punter.
In the last four years those stats read three wins from ten for 22.3pts profit. And I should add that her horses have won both of their last two races here.
Mrs Hamilton has just the one runner today: Trust Thomas.
Trust Thomas is making only his fifth start today, but has shown glimpses of potential in all four previous outings, and has made progress in each of those races, culminating in a 66/1 third place finish at Carlisle on soft ground 24 days ago. In fairness, he was well beaten by Eduard that day, but Eduard is expected to go on to better things anyway and Trust Thomas stayed on well at the end after overcoming a couple of minor jumping errors early on. His jumping is improving, but he has only faced the hurdles twice so far.
The general feeling is that he'll probably want further than today's trip in time and that he'll also progress more once handicapping. Today's encounter is a competitive one, but it's also a fairly open-looking one with several horses capable of making a name for themselves. The openness means that we're going to get a decent price this afternoon.
The early (well, 10am!) markets were showing Trust Thomas as anything between 18/1 and 25/1, so we'll obviously take what we can! Thus, the play today is a 0.5pt safety-first E/W bet on Trust Thomas at 25/1 BOG: this is with Bet 365, but as always, I recommend that you...
P.S. Harry Haynes takes the ride today and he has a decent record here too, with a 37% place strike rate.