Stat of the Day, 29th June 2013
I'm back in the chair today after a couple of days of enforced inactivity (thanks to the vandals who ripped all the cabling out of the local exchange, leaving the whole area without telephones and internet!) and I've got a rare E/W bet for you today, after King Torus failed to return to former glories last night, finishing last of eight at 12/1.
We're off the HQ today and the July course for a seven furlong, Class 4 Maiden on good ground, where ten runners will line up for the...
Saeed Bin Suroor is a dab hand at getting his two-year olds to fire on their racecourse debut. Since the start of the 2011 season, he has saddled up twenty-six two-year old winners on debut priced at 12/1 or under and this is from just 101 runners. That's a tremendous strike rate of some 25.74%, giving a profit of 30.2pts from level stakes, a return on investment of a shade under 30%: not to be sniffed at, at all.
Despite the yard having an abundance of runners out there today (13 spread across 4 meetings), they've just the one juvenile debutant: Squire.
Obviously, we've no form to go off at all on debut, but he holds a Derby entry and is a half-brother to six winners including Charming Prince, Tian Shan, and Dashwood, whilst his dam (Most Charming) was a runner-up in a French Listed 1m event.
Squire will be ridden by Mickael Barzalona today, which I see as a positive based on his own stats on this course. When riding horses priced below 12/1, Mickael has ridden 22 winners from 80 attempts on the July course, a strike rate of 27.50% which has resulted in level stakes profits of a massive 71.34pts (+89.18% ROI) with a place strike rate of over 46%.
The presence of an even money favourite means that odds of 9/1 BOG (Bet365) are an attractive prospect, so that's where I'm at, but please take the opportunity to...
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