Stat of the Day, 29th December 2012
Bin End's performance pretty much summed up the way SotD has performed of late. The selection looked good on paper and went well until asked for a little extra. From then on, his race was over and he went backwards and in fairness, I'm not sure anything would have caught the eventual winner who fairly flew home from 3 out. Just like SotD, Bin End gave his best shot, which was ultimately not good enough and I'm just as disappointed as my detractors are with recent results.
In a bid to alleviate the drought, we're going back to the West Midlands Polytrack for 5 furlong, 12-runner, Class 5 Handicap shown on your racecards as the...
Mark Buckley's record at Wolverhampton is by no means spectacular. It's not even moderately successful, if I'm honest, with just one placed horse in seven attempts at the Dunstall Park track.
So, you're probably wondering why he features today for SotD or maybe I've lost the plot! The thing is that his yard has recently acquired a horse that is somewhat of an all-weather specialist, particularly here at Wolverhampton and the horse is Steelcut.
Steelcut's A/W record is 7 wins from 31 (22.6%) for 7.7pts profit: a ROI of 24.8%, whilst his place strike rate is 48.4% rewarding E/W backers with a profit of 19.6pts (31.6% ROI).These figures are respectable enough, but the strike rate rises to 23.5% over today's 5 furlong trip with four wins from seventeen contests, whilst those 17 races have seen him placed an impressive ten times, generating E/W profits of some 14.8pts (43.5% ROI)
Yet, it's at Wolverhampton where he really seems to come alight with 5 wins from 19 (26.3%) for a level stakes profit of 11.4pts at SP (+60% ROI) and eleven placed finishes in those 19 races (57.9%) for profits of 26.6pts (70% ROI). All of Steelcut's four wins over the minimum 5f trip have come here at Wolverhampton from just 11 attempts, this 36.4% strike rate has produced 6.4pts profit (58.2% ROI), whilst the 8/11 (72.7%) place strike rate has benefited E/W followers to the tune of 21.3pts (96.8%).
He looked like he was coming back to his best form last time out when second here over C&D a month ago, when he defied his 40/1 odds to beat all bar Another Citizen who reopposes today, but our selection is 6lbs better off today than that previous encounter and whilst Steelcut is well drawn is stall 2, Another Citizen is out wide on box 12.
Based on the plethora of stats I've produced for this one, the best strike rate and ROI for this horse seems to point to an E/W bet in a 5 furlong contest at Wolverhampton, so to me it's quite simple to call the play as just that! I've just taken 17.0 on Betfair for the win and 4.30 for a place and the best odds on offer from a traditional bookie was 7/1 BOG at the time of posting (1.00 am!). This price was available from both Bet365 and BetVictor, but you might get a better price later by taking the opportunity to...
PS A full market was available at 10.00am and 12/1 BOG was on offer to all.