Stat of the Day, 29th August 2012

Stat of the Day 29/8

Stat of the Day 29/8

Stat of the Day, 29th August 2012

Another frustrating day yesterday for SotD: firstly Monday's stat re: Scott Dixon at Epsom bore fruit a day late as Sacrosanctus won at 8/1 and then yesterday's advice was around the Kevin & Amy Ryan combination who duly had a 9/4 winner immediately after Shifting Gold had run terribly.  We know that we're close to getting it spot on, but close isn't enough for us at SotD, we're a greedy bunch and we want winners.

I am, however, confident of a return to the winners' enclosure today, as we tackle a Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2 miles and 7 furlongs on Good ground that is already softer in parts and may well become even softer if this rain continues. Only 6 run today in this one, so we're looking for an outright winner in the...

2.20 Worcester

This seems like an interesting and tightly competitive contest to open the Worcester card, but I'll nail my colours straight to the mast and immediately nominate Allerford Jack as our selection.

This horse was a fairly average hurdler, before changing yards and being sent chasing back in April. Since then he hasn't looked back (well, only to see how far his rivals were behind him!). He has contested 5 chases since mid-April with figures of 31111, including 2 wins here at Worcester: one of which was over today's trip. So we, know he gets the track and the distance.

He is now trained by Richard Woollacott, whose fledgling training career has got off to a great start, particularly with his chasers: 7 wins and a place from just 12 attempts, which is quite remarkable.

There's little more to add here really, other than to say that talented claimer Micheal Nolan is on board once again today and his 7lbs claim will be good to offset the penalty being carried by Allerford Jack. I fully expect our selection to win today and the 3/1 BOG currently on offer from Boyle Sports looks very attractive, but you can always...

Click here for the latest odds for the 2.20 Worcester.

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 29th August 2012

  1. Peter King

    Well you don’t really appreciate my comments – but here we go again – I think we are all very familiar with this flying cash machine – the trick is when to pull the plug –
    It would come as no surprise to see him do the 5 timer – but at 3/1 in a six runner Class- 3 running against better opposition now and 9lb higher than when successful over 2m4f here last week , sorry NO VALUE , NO BET ,

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      You’re more than welcome to your opinion, even if most of us on here think it’s ridiculous.
      You have been conspicuous by your absence of late, but I’m sure that it’s only a coincidence that you never have anything to say when results are going in our favour.
      Like I said, you’re welcome to an opinion, as am I. And I’m of the opinion that you’re little more than an internet troll.
      You were asked in the past to put up some selections that represented “real value”, but you declined.

      PS What kind of price do you think this horse should be today?

      1. Matt Bisogno Post author

        In actual fact, Peter, to demonstrate where you consider the value to be in the race, how about you produce a tissue for the whole field? Then we can see a) what price you make the SotD pick, and b) where the ‘real’ value lies against it…

        It’s too easy – and lazy – to pick holes when it suits. It adds nothing to the conversation and marks you down as petty and unfulfilled. Seriously. So, please, add value or go find another place to hang out.

        The others are more tolerant of your negativity, but someone who can only be negative has no use to anyone, and is certainly not welcome here. So, finally, put up or shut up. Period.


  2. Patrick

    In the immortal words of Michael Mates to Asil Nadir Chris Matt don’t let the buggers get you down. Pleased to confirm that I am on SOTD win or lose I am happy with the value proposition.

  3. Ed

    I have my tissue as displayed below:

    Allerford Jack @ 9/4

    Caddie Master @ 3/1

    Nodforms Violet @ 7/2

    Calusa Caldera @ 16/1

    Rossbrin @ 12/1

    Magic Marmalade @ 8/1

    Now if Peter understands anything about “books” he’ll realise that this is the closet I could get to a 100% tissue (it currently stands at 103%)

    What you’ll notice is that the aforementioned Alleford Jack has been priced up at 9/4 which is where the market has now been pushed into. So by my calculations Allerford Jack WAS value at the 3/1 mark. For those that got on at 3/1 they have now got a ticket with a 25% chance that has actually got a 30.77% chance. Not only have you beat the market (at the moment of course) you have beaten the 8% or so overround the bookie has!

    If you understand all that Peter you may actually be able to contribute more positivly to a site that consistently beats the market, therefore is finding the value.


  4. ecrompton

    Are my posts being lost on here? Think it might be my computer? Don’t publish this post if my “tissue post” has actually come through to you!
    Would it be anything to do with cookies?

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      All comments are manually approved/rejected, to keep the comment list free from spammers. Neither I nor matt were at our desks when you posted your tissue, but it was/is much appreciated.


  5. peter

    I feel you are all ganging up on me – the result speaks for itself – you never took other factors into consideration ,

    this in fact was a good lay Value bet – and that is exactly what i did ,

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Nobody is ganging up on you, we just disagree with you.
      If you laid it, well done. But if gloating is your only reason for coming back: don’t bother.
      You’re still not adding anything constructive to the discussion and we won’t ask again.


    2. MikeA

      Come on, Peter. If you laid it today, good call, but you are missing the point. You can’t judge a service – free or otherwise – by individual results. If you had laid every selection since this service started then you’d be doing very badly. If I tried to pick and choose which of the selections to back then I’d probably duck a few losers, but I’d also miss out on a lot of very nice winners. It’s about the process and thinking behind the selections, not one-off results.

    3. Matt Bisogno Post author

      After timing is an even worse trait than negativity. Honestly Peter, you’re on final notice now. Something positive, before the event, or nothing at all. No excuses.


  6. Stuart

    Thanks to this site, I had an almost 50/1 double last week. Was there value there Peter, old chap?

    Jesus H Christ on a bike, this has to be one of the best sites on the Internet and still someone moans about it. It’s unreal. What on earth do you want out of life, a money tree in your garden? After a year of making profits by blindly backing every horse mentioned (from a free site no less – how many subscription sites can claim regular profits for a year?), the idea that someone can pop up during the inevitable bad spells and be negative just defies belief.

    Two things:
    1. Put up, or shut up. You’ve been invited to tell us (before the horses run) whether you think there’s value or not. Anyone can say there was no value on a horse that’s already lost. I can give you a hundred examples from yesterday. It’s not very clever, is it? If your tips make money over a period of time, you’ll gain respect. If they don’t, you won’t. Ain’t life simple?

    2. If everyone moaned like you do, Matt and Chris would stop. So would I if I were running a free site and, I dare suggest, so would you. Where would we be then? In my case, out of pocket. Well, less well-off. In the case of everyone else who follows this site daily, at least marginally less well-off. And the bookies would be making slightly more money each day. More on that later.

    I suggest you would better taking the bookies on rather than taking Matt and Chris on. Again, more on that later.

    The wisest words on this thread are from Chris:
    “You have been conspicuous by your absence of late, but I’m sure that it’s only a coincidence that you never have anything to say when results are going in our favour. Like I said, you’re welcome to an opinion, as am I. And I’m of the opinion that you’re little more than an internet troll.”

    Hear hear. Loudly.

    Matt, I’m deeply suspicious that Peter is in the employ of a bookmaker. Why else would anyone attack a profitable tipster site? I can think of no other good reason, beyond Chris’ troll suggestion. Perhaps some people only exist to anonymously (and, oh my, how brave that is) piss everyone else off? I just don’t get that.

    No, bookmaker troll. That’s my opinion, and I’ll keep it until I’m proved wrong. Good luck with proving that. A sequence of winning tips would do it, Peter. Otherwise, put up and …… – and then, while you’re about it, go back to Victor’s office (or whoever’s) from whence you came.

  7. Ian Livermore

    Well, full marks to Stuart above, I considered making a response last night ref Peter’s comments, but decided against since he obviously has problems and probably finds any attention gratifying. However, two points one general and one specific:
    first – Peter its entirely up to you whether you bet the selections or even read the posts (I don’t much like X factor, but as Simon Cowell rightly says “If you don’t like it you can switch off”)
    second – Allerford Jack has gone up in the weights, class of race etc. and if he was an even money shot (which he wasn’t) might have been a lay, but I watched the race and the horse was brought down, he was going as well any anything at the time and the event had nothing to do with the weight or class of race as far as I can see. If Peter was laying rather than backing why did he not say so before the race?
    With apologies if this offers Peter any encouragement!
    Ian L

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