Stat of the Day, 28th September 2012

Stat of the Day 28/09

Stat of the Day 28/09

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2012

A fantastic result for us yesterday, as our 9/1 advised shot Aneyeforaneye drifted out to an SP on 12/1 and just about got up on the line to take a thrilling victory.
We had, of course, only advised an E/W bet, but that was still enough to make a 7.2pts profit from the race. Unfortunately Mr Jefferson couldn't quite get the 65/1 double, as The Magic Bishop finished 2nd in the following race.

Our quest to end the month on a high takes us to Merseyside today, where the ground is heavy after some serious rain recently. Our contest is the last on the card, a Class 5 Apprentice Handicap over 10 furlongs and we're expecting 11 runners to compete for the...

5.20 Haydock

Over the last couple of years, the Haydock record of Alan Bailey is the best of all those with runners at this track today. His strike rate of 29% puts him just ahead of Tom Dascombe on 27% and his impressive place strike rate of 43% in Haydock handicaps is also the best on show today.

Therefore, we're immediately interested when Mr Bailey has a horse running at Haydock Park and even more so on those occasions when it's just one runner. This is the case today, as Alan's sole representative at the track is Dazzling Valentine, our SotD pick of the day.

Dazzling Valentine arrives here in good form with a recent record of one win and three places from five attempts over the last couple of months, including a 20/1 2nd place finish over course & distance on her last visit here in July. She should arrive in good heart after a win at Brighton over this same trip last time out (3 weeks ago) and I'd expect her to be on the premises once again, despite a 3lb rise for that win. Stamina on this heavy ground shouldn't be an issue either, she has performed on soft ground quite well in the past and has some good results at a longer trip under her belt.

As this is an apprentice handicap, jockey choice is very important and we're very fortunate to have the talented Natasha Eaton on board today. Not only does she hold the best riding record of all the jockeys on show today (40% win strike rate), she also has an excellent 50% place strike rate at the track. Added to this is a useful 3lb claim, which will go some way to counter the recent rise in weights for our horse.

Natasha has only ridden 6 times for Alan Bailey at Haydock and their record together reads 111542, the last of which was the afore-mentioned 20/1 2nd place finish for today's selection Dazzling Valentine.

All thing considered, I think we've a very good chance of at least a place finish. The fact that this race is a tougher task than last time is reflected in the odds available but at 8/1 BOG (bet365), an E/W bet is available to us.

So, for SotD records purposes, I'll be taking 0.5pts E/W at 8/1 BOG on Dazzling Valentine,
but I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.20 Haydock.

P.S. I mentioned that Tom Dascombe had the 2nd best training record on show today.
Well, he only has one runner too and that horse is also Natasha Eaton's only scheduled ride today.
Chosen Character (currently 5/1 BOG with Bet365) runs in the preceding race to ours at 4.45.

11 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th September 2012

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Roger,
      There’s no set time to it, I’m afraid, other than we aim to have it online before 10am where possible.
      I actually posted this one at 2.20 this morning!
      I don’t think it has shortened for any particular reason, to be honest. When I saw bet365 were offering 8/1, I was happy, but they were the only market available. I think the other firms have priced it more realistically at 13/2 and bet365 have just followed suit.
      13/2 BOG is still a decent enough E/W bet on this one. A place will see a small profit overall and a free bet on the win element.

      Chris

  1. Roger Elliott

    Thanks Chris. Watch out you don’t become a major market mover after tips like Aneyeforaneye! You’ve got to give bet365 credit for sticking their necks out early AND they keep giving me £5 bonuses to niggle me along. Thanks for the tips and your interesting analysis – it’s always interesting to know WHY someone is giving a tip.

    Roger

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I don’t think there’s much danger of me becoming a market mover, although I did tip one up at 20/1 last week, which won at 7’s.
      As for the explanations: that is the whole rationale behind SotD. We find some very good reasons for a horse to run well, whether it does or not .
      And if it loses, at least we’re happy about why we backed it.

      PS For anyone wondering, yes I do back all them personally too, at the prices I quote.

      1. Matt Bisogno Post author

        This is the absolute essence of SotD. Yes, we find winners, some of them at very nice prices. But, each day, you get our ‘working out’ which means you are well placed to decide whether you think it’s worth a punt or not.

        That separates us from most other services, free or paid, and we’re proud to give people wagering food for thought as well as winners. 🙂

        Best,
        Matt

  2. Paul D

    Listened to the race and it sounded like the horse ran out of steam after getting into a good position. As always, invaluable information and we can’t win them all. As you will no doubt point out tomorrow, Chosen Character came home to win and I’m sure a lot of regular readers will have had that one to save their day. I was on both anyway before you published due to the hints in Mal’s “Well I Declare” piece – 2nd time this week after Refractor.
    Enjoy the weekend

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Paul,
      You’re pretty much correct about how tonight’s race went, we can’t win them all.
      Chosen Character did indeed win, but it won’t count for SotD purposes.
      Finally, SotD and Well, I Declare will often have similar info because they both deal in statistical fact.
      Sometimes, we’re both right! 😀

      Chris

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