Stat of the Day, 28th November 2013
Absolutely gutted yesterday, as Cloud Creeper conspired to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He looked to have the race sewn up, but idled in the run in and despite jockey Richard Johnson's best efforts to get him going again, he was mugged on the line by a resurgent favourite.
As it was, our 4/1 shot had been well backed into 5/2 and came within a head (it looked closer to be honest!) of giving us another winner at a decent value price.
It was, however, not to be and we drew a blank, but I've got a good one for you today (I hope!), albeit at a shorter price, which runs in the...
I have three separate sets of stats that will hopefully reinforce my selection today, where I've just backed Milosam at 85/40 BOG with BetVictor. 85/40 is getting towards the lower end of the odds we're comfortable with at SotD, but he really does have a great chance here.
1. Previous Taunton Course & Distance winners who came back here after winning last time out very often go on to score back to back victories. In the last three years, their record is 12 wins from 31, a strike rate of 38.7%, which has generated 8.55pts profit, equivalent to a return of 27.6%.
All 12 winners came from the 25 runners sent off at 5/1 or under with that 48% strike rate helping backers to a 14.55pts (+58.2% ROI) profit.
Milosam's last outing was his course and distance win here a fortnight ago.
2. By virtue of that recent win, which came after a string of results reading 907044P, this made him one of the horses that I back to win again when turned out within a month of winning after a string of unplaced efforts. These NH horses are 91 wins from 366 (24.9% SR) this season at all odds, producing healthy profits of 86.6pts or 23.7% of stakes.
66 of the winners have come from the 164 running at 4/1 or less, where the strike rate is an impressive 40.2% for level stakes profits of some 64.1pts, an excellent return of 39.1%.
3. I don't particularly like favourites per sé, but they do win around 1 in 3 races, which is a good start as long as you back the right ones! Milosam will more than likely go off as favourite or joint favourite here today, but that doesn't dissuade me at all. In fact it provides encouragement, as favs/jt favs have won 40 of the 93 handicap contests at Taunton in the last two years, which is a better than average 43% strike rate, which has led to level stakes profits of 48.8pts, or 52.5% of stakes.
All of which led me to a 1pt win bet on Milosam at 85/40 with BetVictor. That price won't last long, but you can, of course...