Stat of the Day, 28th May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2013

Not the best of starts to a new week, as Rosslyn Castle only trailed home 3rd of the 4 runners. He had run pretty well until being headed before the last hurdle, but that then seemed a cue for him to crumble. He faded quite badly and quite quickly from that point, whereby he finished a good 22 lengths behind the winner!

More jumps fayre for you today and another big name in the....

2.20 Newton Abbot:

Following on from yesterday's shock news that Tony McCoy rides lots of winners, here's another piece of information that's hardly ground-breaking news: Nicky Henderson trains lots of winners!

Yes, of course he does, Chris: everyone knows that. Most people also know that if you back him blindly, you'll lose money. Since 2010, backing all of Nicky's runners would have seen you lose some 9.2% of your stakes, despite a 24.4% strike rate. In hurdle contests such as today's the strike rate is slightly lower (23.6%), but so are the losses at just -4.65%.

However, if you backed Nicky's hurdlers here at Newton Abbot in that timeframe, you'd have been looking at eight winners from just nineteen runners: a 42.11% strike rate giving level stakes profits of 9.3pts at Betfair SP, a return of 48.95% and the record with horses 6/1 or under, where we concentrate most of our SotD picks, that record is 8/14 for +14.3pts.

This brings us to Nicky's sole hurdler at Newton Abbot today: Looking Hopeful. He's not one of Nicky's top players, but performed well enough in bumpers and then ran a very creditable second in a novice hurdle at Plumpton. He wasn't as good at Southwell recently, finishing 3rd almost three weeks, but he was coming back from a 4 month break and may well have needed the run and wasn't knocked about too much that day. Despite not having won a race, he has been placed in five of his seven starts, so he's knocking on the door and it looks like his yard have targeted this maiden event as a starting point. It does look weaker than the other races he's run in.

I think there's enough there to justify a 1pt win bet on Looking Hopeful at 4/1 BOG with BoyleSports, but to see what on offer elsewhere, please...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.20 Newton Abbot.


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