Stat of the Day, 28th July 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2013

Gold Hunter ran well enough yesterday, but was beaten into 4th place by a length and a half. In fairness, nothing was catching the surprise runaway winner Lucky Beggar who made all and held on to win at 33/1. These things happen sometimes.

Ascot looks a bit of a minefield this afternoon and it's pretty poor fayre elsewhere stats-wise, but we do have a selection for you in the...

5.30 Carlisle

Short and sweet today, folks as we head North for a 7f handicap where Dream Walker is the selection.

Dream Walker is now trained by Brian Ellison after what is most diplomatically described as an uninspiring career under Ian McInnes, yielding just one win from nineteen attempts with that sole win coming on his handicap debut in May 2012. He has therefore failed to win any of his subsequent thirteen runs on turf, but he has made the frame in 6 of those thirteen, including a second placed finish at Yarmouth last October off a mark 8lbs higher than today.

Brian Ellison has a great record at getting handicappers to perform on their first run for him. In the last couple of years, he has given 100 horses their yard debut after they've previously run for other trainers. 25 of those 100 have won on their 1st run for him, giving a level stakes profit of some 51.35pts.

If those numbers aren't impressive enough, we can see that if there's market support for these runners, the numbers are even better. Of this 100 runners, 71 have gone off at odds of under 8/1, but those 71 runners have provided 24 of the 25 winners. That's a strike rate of 33.8% for profits of 49.4pts, an ROI of 69.6%

Dream Walker isn't as bad a horse as his bare results would suggest. He prefers some cut in the ground and today's soft ground at Carlisle should be right up his street.  On ground described as soft and/or heavy, his record is actually one win and three places from just seven attempts, which is a fair improvement on the rest of his career. I think it's fair to say he doesn't like quick ground.

Today will be his first outing on soft ground since a decent second placed finish at Newcastle in May and he runs here off the same mark, but in  weaker contest. This race represents his best chance of getting back amongst the winners of late and at 7/2 BOG with Paddy Power, he looks a decent prospect for us today.

You should, however...

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1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 28th July 2013

  1. ynwajim

    Cant go wrong with selections like this Chris!! As a subscriber of the excellent WinEachWay I follow 1st time runners for Ellison systematically. He had winner yesterday as well 1st time up, same owner as well at Newmarket. Yesterdays was available at 12/1 briefly night before, returning 9/4, and todays was available with PP at 7/1 last night, which I helped myself to, returning 6/4! importance of BOG highlighted again.

    think this angle should go alongside the Bin Suroor/MB Newmarket angle!

    Josh W

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