Stat of the Day, 27th September 2012

Stat of the Day 27/09

Stat of the Day 27/09

Stat of the Day, 27th September 2012

Refractor was disappointing yesterday, as Martin Lane seemed to have timed his run for the line just right, but when the button was pushed, the response was inadequate and he didn't even get placed. He lost 3rd place virtually on the line, finally finishing 4th at 9/2, marginally shorter than our advised 5/1.

We're heading back up North today for a Class 4 Handicap Chase over
2 miles 4.5 furlongs. 8 runners are set to jump off on good ground to compete for The Centenary Silver Plate also known as the...

3.20 Perth

Malcolm Jefferson doesn't send many horses to Perth, just 10 in the last two years in fact. Those 10 runners however have yielded 3 winners and a place with a level stakes profit of some 24pts. Of those 10 runners,
6 have been chasers and those 6 runners have a record of 5311P1 for a 28pt profit.

Malcolm's yard is in decent nick too, despite a dearth of action recently. He's had just 9 runners out in the last two months, but their record of 112671432 for another 28.5pt profit is also highly impressive.

Today's SotD selection : Aneyeforaneye is responsible for a 11/2 win and a 2nd place from those 9 runners in the last 2 months, so the horse herself is in decent form, showing some promise on her only two chase outings to date. She only went down by a length last time out, whilst trying to give 6lbs to the winner. Her overall career record is pretty good too, with 3 wins already to date from 16 outings, but more tellingly she has only failed to make the frame on three occasions, showing great consistency.

This race is possibly a bit tougher than her two previous races, but she has run well in this class before, scoring 2 wins from 7 at Class 4 with an overall record at this level of 3213142.

This level of consistency allied to  the fact it's a tougher contest leads me to advising an E/W bet today, and as the current market is showing 9/1 BOG (bet365, Betfred and Boylesports) and 10/1 non-BOG with
Sporting Bet, this seems to be the sensible (and safer!) option.

So, for SotD records purposes, I'll be taking 0.5pts E/W at 9/1 BOG on Aneyeforaneye,
but I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.20 Perth.

P.S. I should also point out that Mr Jefferson has another chaser in the 5.05 Perth in the form of
The Magic Bishop, who also looks to have a good chance today. (currently 9/2 BOG with BetVictor)
in a race the trainer won last year

26 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 27th September 2012

  1. Pete

    Hi Chris
    point taken – and i will normaly bet with the bookies – but i just found 15.5 hard to resist – it has now slipped back to 10.0 – i dont normally get this right , i was just lucky –
    lets hope it wins ,
    Regards P-K

  2. Pete

    The dreaded rule 4 bit me yesterday in the 2-45-Perth – I had taken the 9/2 for Esporao and because the Fav withdrew I had to suffer a 60.60% reduction in the odds – esporao won at 4/5 – why do I feel as though I lost ,
    I didn’t take the bet under those conditions – so the bet should be VOID – the simple solution is – if the bookie feels that a withdrawn horse has left him with an unfair disadvantage – then all bets should be Void – and the punter should be allowed to bet another criteria that the bookie will be satisfied with – by doing so you are making it fair for both parties i-e punter and bookie ,
    I fail to see what right the bookie has in forcing me to take a wager that I would never ever have wagered in the first place – and don’t forget my horse won ,
    I am very upset Chris ,

    Regards Pete

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Pete,
      I understand your anger/frustration, but just to play devil’s advocate here.
      If you had a 60% reduction, it still means you got 7/4 about a 4/5 winner, which although not as good as 9/2 still represents good value in a race where the favourite isn’t running.
      Would you have taken the bet at 7/4?

  3. Arnie

    One of those good days I didn’t heed your staking plan since it was my only bet of the day took on betfair @18, great feeling watching Aneyeforaneye romp home, that’s me done for the week. Cheers and thanks

    Satisfied punter

  4. Alan Slinn

    HI just read your stat of day had already backed it on betfair multiples so got 18.7 I do a few each day as singles and doubles on multiples each day.Got 48/1 for a 33/1 shot the other day. So might be worth having a few small bets on multiples each day.Min bet £2 so could have 4 x 50p singles if you fancy a few fun bets. A S

  5. Stuart

    Wow – again I had to sneak out of a meeting to put this bet on. Thankfully with a BOGs bookie.

    After that, I forgot all about it. It as a nice surprise to get home to. Thank you (yet again)….

  6. Jim Hdez

    Fantastic stuff Chris. Listened to commentary at work and found it hard
    to stay so quiet !!. If these results keep up, I can soon leave my job in
    my local library !!!.

  7. Mike

    Well done Chris. Gutted, on train home from London and not had chance to look at this today….first one I’ve missed in a while. Still, you and Matt are throwing these winners in so often I can afford to miss one now and again.

  8. Martin

    Only found out about your site last week, and already backed winners @14/1 and todays 12/1. Absolutely magnificent picks. Thoroughly enjoy reading your write ups. Please dont retire just yet mate! Martin

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