Stat of the Day, 27th November 2013
A disappointing day all round yesterday, as Ever Fortune failed to shine. I thought the early 5/1 was a good price, yet he drifted out to 6/1 at the off and the market had it spot on, as he really struggled.
It was a bad race for trainer Brian Ellison as his two runners were the last two home, our finished 10th of 11.
We're going back hurdling today in the...
Philip Hobbs doesn't send too many hurdlers to Fontwell, but those that have come here have done well in recent times. Over the last two years 6 of 16 Hobbs hurdlers have been returned as winners with a further two making the frame (50% place strike rate.)
The fact that 37.5% of these hurdlers were winners explains how a near 150% profit has been achieved by backing all selections blindly (23.67pts profit), whilst the bulk of those 16 runners were sent off on our usual SotD range ie 13/8 to 6/1.
11 of the 16 hurdlers were sent off in that 13/8 to 6/1 price range and five of those eleven were winners for a 45.45% strike rate and a more than useful 11.44pts (+104% ROI) profit.
Mr Hobbs has just one horse running anywhere today and that's our selection Cloud Creeper.
This horse won on his only crack at an Irish point race and showed some promise in early hurdle races for Donald McCain and has already shown a liking for some cut in the ground, despite not having won just yet. The going is good to soft today and whenever the word soft has appeared in the going report, Cloud Creeper's record reads 24322.
His recent performances have been very promising and lead me to think that today is the day for him to break his duck. He finished third at Ludlow back in February at 28/1 and the horses in front of him that day were a 2/7 favourite and Ptit Zig who was subsequently third in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham.
Cloud Creeper was second on his seasonal reappearance 19 days ago and although he probably needed the run, he was less than two lengths behind the winner Key To The West, who actually won again yesterday. He's expected to relish a step up in trip and looks a decent prospect today.
So, it's a 1pt win bet for me today and I've taken 4/1BOG on Cloud Creeper with William Hill, which is the only price available at present (8.00am), so as always, I recommend that you...