Stat of the Day, 27th February 2014
Churchtown Love provided both Rebecca Curtis and ourselves with a nice heavy ground win yesterday with the added bonus of a price drift from our 11/4 out to 100/30 at the off. This drift gave us a nice 0.58pts bonus thanks to using the BOG bookies.
Our selection was kept handily placed by Barry Geraghty and cleared the last hurdle with a slight advantage. She then pulled clear of the favourite to score by the best part of four lengths.
A similar result would do nicely in another heavy ground hurdle, the...
Which sees the quick return of Join The Navy, a 50/1 winner over course and distance on similarly heavy ground just nine days ago.
Horses who won at 40/1 or greater last time out have gone on to win their next race on 66 of 299 occasions when sent off in the 5/2 to 8/1 odds range. This 22.1% strike rate has already generated 144.15pts profit from level stakes, a return of 48.2% above those stakes.
We should also note that horses running in handicap races at Taunton priced below 8/1 with CD next to their name have a decent record. In the last four years, former course and distance winners running in Taunton handicaps at under 8/1 on the back of a win LTO (which could be anywhere!) have won 11 of 27 races for a strike rate of 40.4% and profits of 12.22pts (+45.3% ROI).
Of the above 27-runner subset, twenty-two of them were LTO winners here at Taunton and nine of them (40.9% SR) went on to complete back to back victories. The nine subsequent winners would have produced level stakes profits of 13.6pts , or 64.8% of stakes.
Join The Navy is understandably up in the weights after that win over C&D here nine days ago, but that was his hurdling debut after a reasonable if not stellar 14 races over fences, where he won twice and had finished in the first four home in all bar three uncompleted races. He is entitled to come on for that first crack over hurdles and he'll not be troubled by the ground conditions either.
All three of his career wins to date have come on heavy ground from just six attempts and whilst it won't be a walk in the park today, I'd expect him to grind out another tough run. We're not getting anywhere near those 50/1 odds this time though and the best on offer at present is 4/1 BOG.
So, I'm backing Join The Navy for a 1pt win at 4/1 BOG. The price is widely available, but I'm going to reinvest some of yesterday's winnings with Bet365. You can see your favoured bookies' prices when you...