Stat of the Day, 26th September 2012

Stat of the Day 26/09

Stat of the Day 26/09

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2012

No play for us yesterday, as Shy was a fairly late withdrawal on a day littered with non-runners. Today might very well go the same way, Redcar have abandoned (as has Ripon for Saturday) and I expect to see a few pulled out at Goodwood later.

With this in mind, we're playing it safe today and we're heading back down South for a spin on the Polytrack at Sunbury on Thames for a competitive-looking 14-runner handicap over a mile and a half, better known as the...

8.20 Kempton

Over the past couple of years, the best training record in Kempton handicaps belongs to James Fanshawe. It's quite common for a trainer's strike rate to suffer with the more horses he runs, something akin to the law of diminishing returns. Yet this hasn't been the case for Mr Fanshawe here: 64 handicappers in two years is a decent sample size and 18 winners (28.1%) have brought home a level stakes profit of some 60pts at industry SP. That, itself, is a return of almost 94% and seriously, guys (and girls, of course!) who bets at SP if they can avoid it? His record at getting non-winners into the frame is impressive too. A total of 37 horses from these 64 (58%) made the frame, which basically means if his horse doesn't win, there's a 41.3% chance of it coming 2nd or 3rd!

It will now come as no surprise, to regular readers of SotD, to discover that James has just the one runner today. It's obviously in a Kempton handicap and that alone would be enough to qualify it as a selection, but let's take a closer look at the horse: Refractor himself, as his own stats are worth taking note of.

Refractor's own record at Kempton reads 21511 generating 19.6pts profit and his record over C&D reads 151 for 19pts profit.

He has his regular pilot Martin Lane on board today and should hit the track fairly refreshed as he attempts to complete a hat-trick after a 3 week rest. He beat Kuda Haraa by a length and a half last time out and has been raised 4lbs for that, making it a little tougher today, but that has been reflected in the market.

When I first identified this one, he was 11/2 BOG with bet365, but that has now gone and the best available is 5/1 BOG. This may also shorten as the morning progresses, so for SotD purposes it's a 1pt win bet at 5/1 BOG, but I suggest that you...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 8.20 Kempton.

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