Stat of the Day, 26th May 2013
No joy on Exning Halt's debut over hurdles, I'm afraid. We got on at 3/1 and he took a real hike in the markets during the course of the day and the layers were proved correct. He didn't jump fluently at all and it was only his flat speed that kept him in with any chance at all, but he jumping errors took their toll and he came home 5th at 13/2, having opened as large as 7/1.
We're heading down to West Sussex this afternoon for a ten runner, Class 4 Handicap hurdle. The going is set to be good for the 2 miles 2.5 furlongs trip in the....
We've had a couple of poor results over the last couple of days, so we turn to one of Geegeez' friends to help back amongst the winners. The man I'm referring to is Anthony Honeyball, another member of that rare club of trainers that you can back blindly in handicaps and make a long-term profit. Since the start of 2010, his record in handicaps is 25 wins from 97 races, a strike rate of 25.77% producing level stakes profits of 68.63pts (+70.75% ROI) at SP, rising to 87.55pts (+90.26% ROI) at Betfair SP. His strike rate with handicappers priced 6/1 or under in that timeframe is an incredible 34.6%.
Mr Honeyball is also very adept at getting horses to run well when coming back from a break with a strike rate of around 20% with horses returning to the track after more than two months since their last run, whilst his runners have a 29% strike rate here at Fontwell.
He has one such runner today: Jaja De Jau, who will be aiming to build upon the steady progress he made in his three NH runs over the winter, gradually getting closer to victory, finishing 7th, 4th and then 2nd. This horse makes his handicap debut today and the yard have been very successful with handicap debutants in recent years with 15 winners from 55 (27.27%) for profits of 57.75 pts (+105% ROI) and 70.29pts (+127.8% ROI) between 2010 and 2012.
Jaja De Jau has been quite leniently treated for this race, running off just 94 and carrying bottom weight, further aided by a valuable 3lbs taken off by the talented Rachael Green, who herself has an excellent record at Fontwell with 5 wins and 4 places from just 13 rides for Mr Honeyball.
That's a whole stack of stats pointing to this one and I'm more than happy to stake my 1pt win bet on Jaja De Jau at 4/1 BOG with Paddy Power (price correct at 10.30pm on Saturday evening), but I'd expect this price to contract during the course of Sunday, so please...
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