Stat of the Day, 26th August 2013
It was a good day for Ed Dunlop yesterday who maintained his excellent record in July/August handicap races, as Filia Regina won on debut and his other runner (and our selection) Bantam was third after a good run. Our pick was sent off at less than half of the 9/1 price we'd taken with an eventual SP of just 4/1. She ran well enough, but never looked like beating Astonishing, who himself was beaten on the line. The end result for us was a 3rd place at 9/1 E/W for 0.4pts profit.
It's Bank Holiday Monday today and it's quite difficult to see the woods for the trees, such is the number of races today. There's certainly every possibility of it being more a case of quantity than quality, because I'm not overimpressed with the general standard of fayre on offer.
That said, we offer a service every day that we possibly can and thus, with that in mind we're off to Yorkshire for the...
Today I'm turning back to a couple of my course and distance winner microsystems and one runner, Robert The Painter, features on both of them. Each of the two stats I'm going to open up have a common denominator and that is that the horse must have won over this course and distance in the past AND it must have won last time out, wherever it ran. In other words, I want a horse in some kind of form with previous knowledge of this track.
So, in the last three seasons (inc. 2013), such horses returning to Ripon have a near 20% strike rate, via seven winners from thirty-six with level stakes profits of 12.64pts (+35.1% ROI). All 7 winners came from the 29 runners priced at 11/1 or under, giving a respective strike rate of 24.1% and the profits rise accordingly to 19.64pts, or a more palatable 67.7% of stakes. Even, the safety first route of backing them E/W has made almost 22pts at SP from those 29 runners priced below 12/1.
The second set of data revolves around the trainer David O'Meara and the results achieved whenever he sends a horse out anywhere that fits the main criteria. He has had a 26% strike rate with horses in the last three years (13 wins from 50) and these winners have helped his followers to profits of 9.47pts, almost 19% of stakes. Once again, we see that all of the 13 winners were priced at 11/1 or under, as were 46 of the 50 runners. This 13/46 record equates to a strike rate of 28.3% and the ROI is a similar figure at 29.3%, courtesy of 13.47pts. E/W backers made almost 12pts from these runners.
It should also be noted that David O'Meara sent today's runner, Robert The Painter back to win at Beverley four weeks ago on the back of a win there over C&D a fortnight earlier. The horse then reappeared here at Ripon nine days ago to win over today's trip and now attempts to complete back-to-back back-to-back C&D wins, if you follow!
This means he comes here looking to complete a four-timer within six weeks and has been raised in the weights accordingly. he's up a massive 8lbs for his last win, but David Bergin is on board today and he's certainly no mug and also takes off a valuable 5lbs here, which could make all the difference. We're drawn out fairly wide (11 of 14) today, but I don't consider that too much of an in issue either, as he won here from stall 16 (of 16) last time out.
The general concerns re: his weight and the draw mean we can take advantage of a healthy looking 13/2 BOG this morning and this price is quite widely available, although he is already as low as 9/2 in places, so maybe the money might be coming. At 13/2, there's still enough juice to take a safer E/W option, but they say that fortune favours the brave, so it's a 1pt all-in win bet for me.
I've taken that 13/2 BOG from Bet365, simply because I've topped my bank up this morning to avail myself of the excellent offer highlighted by Matt in his Monday mail-out. I'm very aware that this price is also on offer in several other places, so I advise you to shop around and...
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