Stat of the Day, 24th October 2012

Stat of the Day 24/10

Stat of the Day 24/10

Stat of the Day, 24th October 2012

It was another feeling of deja vu yesterday, as once more I managed to find the runner-up of the race. Unfortunately, there wasn't enough room in the 9/2 we took about Clumber Place to afford us an E/W bet, but hindsight remains a wonderful thing! As it happens, Caramelita under track specialist Freddie Tylicki beat our mount relatively comfortably by the best part of two lengths.

Today, we're heading back towards London for a trip on the Sunbury-on-Thames polytrack. The contest is a 7-furlong, Class 4 Handicap and we're expecting 14 runners to go to post for a competitive-looking...

8.50 Kempton

After a recent spate of near misses at prices only just profitable at E/W, we're going to try something a bit more left field today, as we take a look at one of racing's less well-known trainers, but a successful one in certain spheres nonetheless.

Karen George's overall record over the last year though isn't brilliant, it has to be said. 9 winners from 91 for a loss of almost 37pts at level stakes(40% of stakes) isn't something to write home about. However five of those nine winners have been here at Kempton, where her record since last November is far more pleasing on the eye at 154116872117 : five winners and a place from twelve runners, producing a handy 59% return on all stakes. Of those 12 races, 8 were handicap events and her record reads 51182117 : 4 winners and a place from 8 for a level stakes profit of 10.2pts (127.5%).

Karen has two handicappers at Kempton this evening. The first, Belle Park, has a squeak of making the frame in the 5.50 race, but is up against an odds on favourite and several more well-liked types and as such, is currently a 20/1 shot generally.

Our selection is also a bit of a punt today, but does seem to have a bit more in his favour, as we're going with Good Authority.

Good Authority has a decent record on All-Weather tracks, winning two races from eight with a further three runner-up finishes (sounds like an SotD horse!).  He is only 1 from 5 here at Kempton, but that solitary victory was his only effort over both course & distance and he returns to his optimum trip of 7 furlongs today. His record at this trip is quite impressive, reading 021131, the last of those was a battling victory at Leicester seven weeks ago. Backing this horse over 7 furlongs would have netted 12.3pts from the 6 races.

Tom McLaughlin was on board that day at Leicester and he's back in the saddle today. Tom also has a creditable record here at Kempton with 3 wins and 3 places from 14 rides in the last 6 months and today will be the 7th time he's ridden Good Authority, having already tasted victory twice along with a 3rd place finish at Ascot.

This is a tricky affair today and we're far from guaranteed a return, but reverting back to an all-weather track at this favoured distance makes the current 20/1 BOG on offer look quite attractive. We stand a decent chance of a place finish today so it's 0.5pts E/W on Good Authority at 20/1 BOG. You can take your pick from Bet365 or BetFred for that price or you can always...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 8.50 Kempton.

14 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th October 2012

  1. joseph

    Hi Chris.
    Re stod an excellent service that I am following and very much in profit. Splitting my stakes 20% win 80% place. Sometimes 25% win 75% place. Very rarely do I back races under 1mile absolute minimum 7 furlongs. Also reluctant to bet when the going is heavy because anything can happen in these conditions although the horse may like the going not always the thing to do.
    The reason for not betting on the sprint races is if a horse gets off to a bad start it may well be difficult for the horse to catch up and win. I would rather not have a bet under these conditions.
    Would Frankel have won on Saturday if the race had been 5 furlongs?
    I would ask that you consider these factors when making your selections for stod and maybe there would be more winners. I am not meaning to be critical just constructive in helping to find more winners..
    Kind Regards.
    Joseph.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Joseph

      Thanks for your email and, with all due respect, I’m afraid we’ll not be taking into account your points.

      SotD’s success is based on the factors which WE consider to be material. They are statistical, not purely form based, and they work for those reasons. Your personal choices of races to play are your business, and we wish you well with those.

      Equally, our choices of races to play are our business. You may or may not choose to follow us in on any given day, but I would respectfully ask that you don’t ‘tell us how to do our job’. +130 points says we don’t need to be told. 😉

      Best Regards,
      Matt

      1. Bullys Left Foot! Come on you Wolves

        Hi Matt (and Chris)your record says it all and punters should accept your selections or not, but to try and tell you what races to choose for your selections is out of order. Anyone who has been following sotd for as long as I have just accept that the winners will soon be along like buses!
        Thank you for your FREE service which has boosted my betting bank manyfold since I have been folowing sotd.
        Graham (Bullys Left Foot)

  2. Stuart

    I regularly follow Matt and Chris’s selections, being they are well researched and I appreciate the time and effort put into their ‘voluntary’ work. That said, I am open minded to others suggestions too, and happily show interest in alternative methods IF they are proven! Matt and Chris are proven, nuff said!
    Keep it up!

  3. oneman

    Hi

    Just a bit of info if anyone took up the free £10 (no deposit required) offer from Betfred. From a e-mail i got through here ( thanks) they only give BOG at half an hour before the race. Still a good offer if anyone has not claimed yet, It takes up to 48hrs ( mine was less than 18hrs) so free cash, start a new bank!!!

  4. oneman

    Hi.
    I watched a old documenter last night, about luck and chance? and in the end it says give your luck out. Return (you get it back 3-1) and never dwell on the past as it works worse. So do not brag and when things do go wrong, do not try to explain the loss ? and never brag ( the facts are . Wish well and say nought!!!!!!!!!)Just step back and take in. But do not judge Just take things that happen expect them and adjust? Yes?

  5. Johnny5

    Tough

    Ran on really well at the death – I think just pipped for a place

    Onwards we go !! Thanks for all the thought in your selection – you’ll hit gold soon lads ! Great service and best u indeed leave as you are !!!!!

  6. Johnny5

    Pipped indeed

    20/1 into 12/1 – fourth beaten a shd and a hd !!!

    SO tough – keep the faith Chris you are SO knocking on that proverbial door of the winners enclosure !!

    Great selection fella – just out !!

  7. Johnny5

    Indeed it did Matt . Sporting life initial report on SP was incorrect . Either way – terrific punt prob Inspired by CW beaten by two and a bit of a horses head . Reward will come soon ….

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