Stat of the Day, 24th July 2013
It wasn't a good day yesterday, I'm afraid, as Burning Thread could only finish last but one of the eight runners. Despite having a good draw and a good record at the track, he was struggling from about halfway before weakening in the final furlong.
Familiar faces are called upon today to get us back into the winners enclosure as we tackle the...
The Mickael Barzalona / Saeed bin Suroor partnership is a formidable unit as regular readers of SotD will know. They helped us to a couple of winners last week over at Newmarket, but they have some fantastic stats to back them up on this A/W track too. They team up twice here at Lingfield today and whilst Mansoreen, who runs in the 3.40 race, looks to be a decent E/W shout at around 7/1, my focus today is on National Poet.
First up, I should point out that the yard has a 41.7% strike rate on the A/W this year, thanks to 10 wins from 24 for 12.9pts (+53.75%) profit with three winners from seven here at Lingfield for 6.88pts profit (+98.3%). With runners priced between evens and 4/1, the yearly record is 9/19 for 9.38pts and 2/3 here at Lingfield.
National Poet has never run on the all-weather before, but Saeed bin Suroor has a 34.6% strike rate with horses making their debut on the all-weather. This is from a decent sample size (54 wins from 156) and has produced level stakes profits of 45.94 pts, an ROI of 29.45%. And when these horses are sent off at odds of 4/1 or under, the strike rate improves to a very impressive 51.1% (48 winners from 94) for profits of 63.3pts (+67.3% ROI).
When this yard has raced horses on Lingfield's Polytrack for the first time, they have a strike rate of 42.1% (16 winners from 38) for 20.33pts profit (+53.5% ROI), with a record of 15 wins from 25 with horses priced at 4/1 or under. That fantastic strike rate of 60% has produced profits of 24.81pts, a return of over 99% above stakes.
Now let's turn to our jockey, Mickael Barzalona, who also has a good record here at Lingfield with a 28.2% strike rate on all rides priced below 12/1, coming from 11 winners off 39 rides here and producing level stakes profits of 31.6pts (+81% ROI).
Finally, we're all very aware that when this jockey and trainer combine, the results are very good as 32 wins from 152 races since the start of 2012 will testify. That excellent 21% strike rate has brought in profits of 27.2pts at all odds on all tracks and this record moves to 22/72 (30.6%) with horses at 4/1 or under with two wins and three places from seven here at Lingfield.
As for the horse itself, today is just his third run of any description and both his breeding and the way he ran at Warwick a fortnight ago would suggest that he needed further than the 1m3f on offer that day. The extra furlong here today should suit him down to the ground and despite the yard also running the likely favourite (Exploratory) in the same race, it is interesting that the jockey has chosen our pick, who was by no means disgraced last time out, finishing 3rd of 12 and beaten by a couple of lengths but still staying on, which he'll need to today.
We've got a yard in great form, particularly on the A/W, a yard who excel at getting horses to perform first time on the A/W and an excellent jockey to steer National Poet home. His stablemate may very go off as favourite, but that suits me down to the ground, as it means I can take 3/1 BOG about him today. That price is currently available with both Bet365 and BetVictor, so to take your pick...