Stat of the Day, 24th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2014

Despite being friendless in the market (7/1 SP from our advised 5/1), Franklin Roosevelt didn't run a bad race really. Sure, he was outpaced before the run-in, but he stuck to his task well and plugged on. Unfortunately the leading trio had long gone by the time he got going again, but he did at least ensure he was the first home of the second trio of runners.

The final results was 4th place at 7/1, some 15 lengths shy of the winner.

Yorkshire is our next port of call for the...

1.40 Doncaster:

An 18-runner Novices' Hurdle is probably not the likeliest place you'd be looking when trying to end a run of losing bets, but fortune favours the brave and I'm going back to stat basics in a bid to revive my fortunes.

In the last two years, trainer John Quinn has had 6 winners and a runner-up from just 12 NH runners here at Doncaster, which is an excellent record yielding some 30.04pts profit at Betfair SP.

Today's contest is a 2m 0.5f hurdle on ground currently somewhere between Good to Soft and Soft with the prospect of more rain falling. The record of Mr Quinn's hurdlers here at Doncaster on ground worse than good is six wins and a runner-up from eleven runners since the start of 2010. This 54.5% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 51.1pts, a massive return of 464.6% above stakes invested.

His only runner here so far this year won, as did his sole entrant in 2013, he was two from four in 2012 and his last three have all been winners. In fact he's four from the last five and five from seven, stretching back to December 2011.

In other words, he doesn't come here often, but he invariably goes home with prize money in his pocket. His sole runner anywhere today is the lightly raced (just seven to date) Pearl Castle, who makes just his second start over hurdles. He was useful on the Flat, winning two from six, including a reasonable standard Class 3 handicap, where three of the five behind him that day went on to win subsequently.

He showed plenty of promise and aptitude for hurdling when finishing third on his first attempt at Wetherby four weeks ago. he may well have been beaten by 22 lengths, but he's sure to come on and improve for that run and it should be pointed out that the remaining four finishers behind him were well strung out that day (15l to the 4th placed horse, then 17l, 17l and 9l), so he beat those horses comfortably and the two in front of him are reportedly decent sorts off to better things.

Pearl Castle is carrying next to no weight here today and if he's on the premises late on, then the low weight allied to his natural flat speed could see him prevail in a dash to the line.

The experience of that first hurdles run is sure to benefit him today and whilst many won't expect him to win here, I'd expect him to be there or thereabouts at a decent price. 15/2 BOG is currently on offer from PP, so I'm taking a 0.5pt E/W bet on Pearl Castle at those odds, but please feel free to...

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9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th January 2014

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers!
      At the risk of sounding churlish/ungrateful, I’m just a little disappointed in myself for not advising (and backing!) a win only bet. I’ve let the recent bad run play on the mind a little and whilst I was very confident of a good run today, I wanted the place safety-net to get the scoreboard moving again.
      Two weeks ago when I was finding winners regularly, this would have been a win only bet, but we still made 5.1pts today, which at least means we’re in front for this week! 😀

      Chris

  1. Needers

    I was going to say the same thing earlier, but didn’t want to seem ungrateful for a great selection! I’ve done win only all week, including Guishan, where I could have done ew and got my money back, and then today I bottled the win only! Ah well, can’t complain. Here’s hoping the Double Dutch comes in as well!

  2. Blokeshead

    Good job Chris – thanks!

    Have a great weekend away – not least because we all know what usually (?) happens when you and Matt play musical chairs!

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