Stat of the Day, 24th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2014

It was a 6 lengths defeat for Proud Times to round off an indifferent week for SotD (see the weekly update for more details), as he seemed to fade considerably in the closing stages.

Perhaps, the simple explanation is that this was a step too far for him, attempting a fifth win in six races that has seen him step up in class and added 25lbs to his OR. The bottom line is that he's probably in the grasp of the assessor now and might need to be left alone for a while.

North of the Border today for the...

3.50 Musselburgh:

Where my selection is the Donald McCain-trained King's Grace is a 3/1 BOG shot with Bet365.

Musselburgh is a happy hunting ground for the McCain team with 27 winners from their 99 runners here since the start of 2010. This 27.3% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of 42.8pts in that, a figure equal to 43.2% of stakes.

As is normally the case, Jason Maguire takes the ride today and he's got a record of 23/75 (30.7% SR) on the McCain horses here at this track. The profits aren't as spectacular, but an 11% (via 8.25pts profit) return from blind backing a well-known partnership isn't horrific either.

That 11% can be improved by not backing those horses sent off at double-digit odds, nor those running below 13/8. You do pretty much halve the number of winners down to 12 (from 46 runners) and this also reduces the strike rate down to 26.1%, but the level stakes profits of 18.9pts represent a return of  over 41% and the ROI has to be the most important consideration from these.

Jason Maguire actually rides four horses for Mr McCain here today, so which should we back? Well, on the face of it, all four look to have a good chance, but I want to take a look at the McCain horses running in Novice Chases here in Scotland.

In the last 6 years, the yard has enjoyed continued success in Class 3 to 5 Novice Chases at Ayr, Kelso, Musselburgh and Perth. There aren't many of these runners each year, but a record of 18 winners from 41 such runners (SR of 43.9%) is impressive and has produced level stakes profits of 34.6pts to date: an ROI of some 84.4%.

From the above 41 runners:
16/33 for 24.5pts at 6/1 or under
4/9 for 8.73pts here at Musselburgh
15/33 for 29.13pts with Jason Maguire on board.

You could, of course, perm the above stats into a very small subsection of profitable rides, but I'm sure you get the picture.

As for King's Grace himself, he's a consistent sort and made the frame in all but one of his six races last year (232P31) and has run further than today's three miles in the past. He will relish the soft conditions underfoot, as he has a record of 16121 on soft ground.

So, it's a 1pt win bet on King's Grace at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 today, but as always feel free to...

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th February 2014

  1. Harbottle

    Are you not concerned about the trainer’s form? 3 winners from 36 runners in the last fortnight is not exactly encouraging, specially with 4 having pulled up since Thursday.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi,

      No, not really is the simple answer.
      Firstly, this horse itself is in decent nick.
      Secondly, if we look at the four PU’s since Thursday: Polarbrook struggled with the pace of the race, dropping back half a mile in trip. The faster tempo caused jumping errors too. Swatow Typhoon ran really well until 6 from home in the Eider, a race two classes higher and more notably a mile further than his last win. Orlittlebylittle did indeed run badly, whilst Knockgraffon King was going well until he hit a fence and lost all momentum and any chance of winning.
      Thirdly, the yard’s record at the track and in Scottish Novice Chases are the statistical reason for the pick.

      I’m more concerned about the number of non-runners eroding the price, to be honest. My 3/1 is now subject to a 60% Rule 4 deduction, meaning my 1pt will only return 2.2pts should the horse win. I wouldn’t have put a selection up for SotD at 6/5, but there is still some value in that price, when you consider he’s as low as 4/5 in places.

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